2019-2020 NBA Season

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C-Fan
Rekordy Polski
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2019-2020 NBA Season

Post by C-Fan » 18 Oct 2019 06:50

Hard to believe the new NBA season starts in just one week!

Thoughts/predictions/hopes:

:arrow: This offseason had more upheaval of NBA superstars than any in recent memory.  Westbrook left the Thunder for OKC, Paul George and Kawhi left their teams for the Clippers, Anthony Davis went to the Lakers, Durant and Kyrie left their teams for the Nets, Kemba left Charlotte, Chris Paul was traded to OKC, Jimmy Butler went to Miami, etc.  Insane amount of movement from the superstars.

:arrow: The Raptors rested Kawhi a ton last year (load management) and it paid off for them in the playoffs.  I expect many other teams will learn from that, and stars will be rested more this year than in the past.  That makes it riskier to buy tickets to games and probably also impacts the fantasy outlook of several players.

:arrow: Zion looked incredible in pre-season, and with the Pelicans wanting to run the fastest paced system in the NBA, the sky is the limit for him.  I want to see this guy play in person... he seems like a young Charles Barkley or Larry Johnson, which is a ton of fun.

:arrow: I'm really curious to see how Curry plays this year.  The last time he played without Durant, he was MVP two years in a row.  This year Durant is gone and Klay will miss most of the season too.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him average some crazy amount of 3 pointers and points.  Should be fun to watch, though I do think the Warriors will be a dumpster fire on defense.

:arrow: I'm excited to see the Sixers this year.  They have a starting 5 with 3 players that are basically 7 feet tall.  That's insane.  If Simmons ever learns to shoot beyond 5 feet...

Onto some wildass predictions:

:arrow: Most Improved: Zach Lavine.  I could see Jaren Jackson Jr. getting attention but he's a second year player so I feel those guys should all be disqualified, since all rookies improve in their second year.  If LaVine stays healthy and is the focal point of the Bulls offense, I could see him win it.

:arrow: Rookie of the Year: Zion. Barring injury, he'll have the most opportunity to impact his team and the Pelicans will be decent.  Feels like a safe bet.

:arrow: MVP: I have a weird feeling it could be Jokic.  There are a lot of superstar duos on teams that will do well, but the fact that they share the load probably splits the credit between them.  Like, if the Clippers are really good and both Kawhi and PG have great years, I doubt either gets a lot of MVP love or they split the votes/goodwill for their team.  There are a few really good players who are the sole pillar of their team, but whose teams might be bad/just OK (Warriors with Curry, Blazers with Lillard, etc.).  Then there's Denver, who has a legit shot at having the best record in the league, and where it all revolves around one guy in Jokic.  Could he average a triple double from the Center spot?  Who knows, but should be fun to see.

:arrow: Defensive Player of the Year: It'd be neat to see Giannis step up a level and win this.  I wish Embiid could get credit for his trash talk in this category too, but even with it he also has a shot at it.  

I don't know if my normal NBA fantasy league is happening this year, so I've taken the liberty of doing some auction drafts in random public leagues for the fun/experience of it.  I may even manage a couple of them this season since I got some real fun teams.  I'll touch on that in a future post. 

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Asmus
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Re: 2019-2020 NBA Season

Post by Asmus » 24 Oct 2019 05:41

Most improved:
As I told you. I don't think your predictions are that wild. Only one is Zach "Avalanche" Lavine winning MIP. I like that bet. I am sticking with it. Fun really wild one could be Markelle Fultz.

Rookie:
Zion did get injured. He might still win. But here is my wild prediction: RJ Barrett from my beloved Knicks. He will get plenty of opportunities and a lots of eyes on him playing for the Knicks. And he opened his NBA career with 21 PTS, 5 REB & 2 STL. Barrett is the second-youngest player (19 years and 131 days) with 21+ points in his first career NBA game – LeBron was 18 years, 303 days. That's good.

MVP:
I like your Jokic bet. For wildass prediction I will be going with Dame Dolla. I think the playoff success last year was good for him and he will take a step up this year. I also don't think they will be half bad.

DPOY:
I think Embiid will win this and it will be because of him playing next to Horford who nobody ever appreciates enough and who everybody always say about "Nobody ever appreciates him enough".

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Asmus thoughts

Post by C-Fan » 28 Oct 2019 11:43

Barrett for ROY isn't crazy. The Knicks do have every incentive to give him as much play time as he can handle. His first few games have been promising for sure. I also think Ja Morant could take it if he does well with enough playing time.

Lillard for MVP also isn't crazy. Being the clear cut best player on a good playoff team is helpful, and Dame has been that a few years running now.

Embiid is somebody I wouldn't bet for or against, for anything. I wouldn't bet against him for MVP or DPOY because he's straight up talented enough to win both in the same year. I also would never bet for him for those, because his health is just too much of a wild card. He's already injured this year! Here are his games played by year:

2015- 0
2016- 0
2017- 31
2018- 63
2019- 64
2020- ?

Given he's missed one of the Sixers' two games already, and may miss today as well, that makes me worry.

I'd like to do a breakdown of my fantasy team soon. I've had some bad injury luck already (Bagley played 1 game then was ruled out for 6 weeks, and Jrue played 2 games injured and then was ruled out for a few games), which cost me my first matchup of the season. That said, I'm still very optimistic about my long term outlook. KAT and Trae Young especially have put up monster lines, and while Davis has been relatively quiet so far, I expect he'll round into form soon.

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Fantasy Update

Post by C-Fan » 19 Nov 2019 13:46

NBA season is about 16% done already.  Not a huge sample size, but enough to get an idea of some trends.  I'd say the biggest story line so far has been injuries ravaging several teams.  That plus a few suspensions for PEDs.  Here's a non-comprehensive list off the top of my head of stars that have missed most/all of the season:

-Steph Curry.  Broken hand, out for 3 months.
-Zion Williamson.  6-8 weeks.
-Marvin Bagley. 4-6 weeks.
-Deandre Ayton.  25 game suspension for PEDs
-John Collins.  25 game suspension for PEDs
-Brandon Ingram.  Missed 4 games and counting.
- Kawhi/Paul George.  Lots of missed games for rest.

In some cases these teams have been able to pivot and replace the injured players with good enough production from others, and not have their records impacted much.  Notably, the Suns' Aron Baynes has been a most improved player candidate this season.  In other cases, having the star player go out with injury has basically incentivized certain teams to tank the season entirely.  The Warriors have the worst record in the NBA at this point of the season, and look like they may just tank the whole season in the hopes of starting next year with a healthy Klay, healthy Curry, and freshly minted lottery pick.

Beyond the real world implications of all these injuries, fantasy NBA has been an unpredictable shit show as a result as well.  Going into the season I had planned on playing in 2 leagues; one with strangers and one with Tu Vu and Asmus. In the strangers league, my team was built around Curry and Davis, with Jrue as my 3rd star.  Curry broke his hand and Jrue had a very slow start, so I abandoned that league entirely.  My team in Asmus' league had a rough start too, and I lost the first 2 weeks of the season before rebounding and winning week 3.  

That team is anchored around  KAT and Brow, with Jrue and Trae Young as my next tier of stars.  KAT was on fire to start the season even getting MVP buzz...and then stupidly got in a fight with Embiid.  So counting the ejection and suspension, he missed 3 games for no good reason.  Trae also had a crazy good start, but then missed a couple games with injury.  I also have Bagley in this league, and have held onto him despite him missing so much time.  At this stage I think my best hope is for Bagley to come back strong, have better injury luck, and hope to pick up somebody good on the waiver at some point.  But yeah, bad start on the fantasy season for me so far. 

I haven't been watching many games so far on TV, but I do keep up with highlights.  Hoping I can watch some games on TV in the next few months.  I have a wedding to attend in Atlanta in February, so maybe I can figure out a way to go see the Hawks play.  Collins will be back by then, and Trae definitely seems like somebody who'd be fun to see play in person.

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