Ken talks to himself about the 2012 NBA Playoffs

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Ken talks to himself about the 2012 NBA Playoffs

Post by C-Fan » 04 May 2012 09:43

The 2012 Playoffs have started. We're still in the first round, with no series more than 3 games in. Personally, I feel like it hasn't been very exciting so far, but I have hope for future rounds. Other than Clippers-Grizzlies, none of the first round series have that much potential for drama.

If anybody has any questions, thoughts or predictions, here's the place for them.
Last edited by C-Fan on 11 May 2012 11:06, edited 1 time in total.

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Post by C-Fan » 04 May 2012 09:51

Here are some updates for people who haven't been following the NBA or the playoffs closely:

:arrow: The Bulls finished the regular season with the best record, giving them homecourt advantage through the playoffs. They won game one of their series against the 8th seeded 76ers, but their best player Derrick Rose tore his ACL at the end of that game. They lost their next game, and even if they win their series they probably don't make it past round 2. Before Rose's injury, I had them at about a 40% chance of winning the East.

:arrow: Dwight Howard had back surgery before the playoffs, and is out. Similar to the Rose injury, I think this means Orlando is doomed. I doubt they win their first round series.

:arrow: The Mavericks and the Knicks are already down 0-3 in their series, and I'd bet money the Jazz join them tonight. In NBA history, no team has ever come back from a 0-3 deficit. i wouldn't be surprised if all three of these series end up being sweeps.

:arrow: Last night the Knicks set an NBA record: most playoff losses in a row, with 13. Don't be surprised to see this get bumped to 14. The last time the Knicks won a playoff game, was back in 2001 agains the Raptors. Ouch.

West coast predictions:

:arrow: If there's a darkhorse team in the entire playoffs, it's the Grizzlies. That said...
:arrow: I fully expect the West will be won by the Thunder or the Spurs. I really hope it's the Thunder. The Lakers have a chance as well, but I like the Thunder or Spurs' chances more.

East predictions:
:arrow: If there's a darkhorse team in the East playoffs, it's the Celtics. I actually expect to see them in the East Finals with the Heat.
:arrow: The Heat are a strong team with an easy path to the East Finals, and a comparatively much easier path to the Finals than any West team. I wouldn't be surprised to see them win it all frankly.

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Post by C-Fan » 08 May 2012 06:15

C-Fan wrote: :arrow: The Mavericks and the Knicks are already down 0-3 in their series, and I'd bet money the Jazz join them tonight. In NBA history, no team has ever come back from a 0-3 deficit. i wouldn't be surprised if all three of these series end up being sweeps.
The Mavs and the Jazz were both swept, and the Knicks barely avoided the sweep. I expect the Knicks to be out next game though. It's looking like this year we'll have to wait til at least the second round of the playoffs before any series get interesting. No series has been tied 2-2...after four games every series has ended up as 3-1 or 4-0.
C-Fan wrote: :arrow: I fully expect the West will be won by the Thunder or the Spurs. I really hope it's the Thunder. The Lakers have a chance as well, but I like the Thunder or Spurs' chances more.
This still looks to be the case. The Thunder will likely face the Lakers in the second round, and the Spurs will likely face the Clippers. I think it's likely the Spurs advance, while the other series is murkier, but I'd give a slight edge to the Thunder. I mean, who on the Lakers will guard Westbrook?
C-Fan wrote: :arrow: If there's a darkhorse team in the East playoffs, it's the Celtics. I actually expect to see them in the East Finals with the Heat.
Sure enough, after a shaky Game 1 loss to the Hawks, it looks like they've found their stride. Rondo is BALLIN', and other than the Heat, nobody impresses me in the East. I expect the conference finals to be Heat-Celtics, with the Heat pulling it out this time.

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Post by h0ag3yb3atZ » 08 May 2012 18:05

C-Fan wrote: I expect the conference finals to be Heat-Celtics, with the Heat pulling it out this time.
bring it lebron :evil:
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Post by C-Fan » 10 May 2012 11:17

Only one second round series has been set so far, but here are some thoughts.

:arrow: Heat-Pacers is the only semifinal series to be determined. The Pacers are actually a decent team, but I just don't see them keeping pace with the Heat. I'm guessing the Pacers steal at least one game, but the motivations for both teams are just too far apart. The Heat were in the Finals last year with a series lead of 2-1, and lost. LeBron needs his first ring to validate his legacy. Anything less than a championship this year is a failure for the Heat. The Pacers? Making it to the playoffs last year was a big step. Winning a series is progress for them, and they've already done that. I just can't see them wanting it as badly.

Series prediction: Heat in 6, maybe 5.

:arrow: Winner of Celtics/Hawks plays winner of Bulls/76ers. Both of these series are 3-2 right now. In the first series, I give the edge to the Celtics. The return of Horford has helped the Hawks, but they don't have the experience the Celtics have, and they have no answer for Rondo. Regardless of who wins this series, I favor them over whoever wins the Bulls/Sixers series. The Bulls are too injured, and the Sixers are too inconsistent and young for either to beat the Celtics or the Hawks. Based on my previous prediction, that'd make the Eastern Finals a matchup of the Heat, and most likely the Celtics, but possibly the Hawks. I give the Heat the edge in either series. I think the Heat have the clearest path to the Finals of any team in the NBA.

:arrow: Winner of Lakers/Nuggets plays the Thunder. I watched the last Nuggets/Lakers game, and the Nuggets looked way better than in the first few games. That said, they still only won by 3 points. Game 6 is in Denver, but even if they win there, they'd have to win in LA as well. I just can't picture that happening. But who knows, if McGee keeps his head on straight, Denver could theoretically upset LA. Regardless of who wins the series (prediction: Lakers), the next round matchup with the Thunder is going to be good.

:arrow: Winner of Grizzlies/Clippers plays the Spurs. The Spurs are on a roll, and with the way they've played for the last month, they should be able to beat either of these teams. That said, it'd be sweet to see a rematch of Grizzlies/Spurs, considering last year the Grizz were an 8 seed who upset a 1 seed. I think the Spurs would be favored in this rematch, but it'd be cool to see regardless.

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Post by C-Fan » 11 May 2012 10:58

:arrow: Bulls were eliminated last night. They become the 5th #1 seed to lose to a #8 seed in NBA history. They might have been able to win the series if Noah hadn't gone down, but the combination of no Noah, no Rose, and their coach playing everybody too many minutes in the regular season and in the shortened playoff rotation doomed them. Philly also benefited from some bad decisions on the Bulls part at the end of the game. The Bulls had a one point lead, and their PG decides to pass it to a career 45% FT shooter. He misses both shots, then fouls the other team with 2 seconds left. They make both shots, and the series is over. The Bulls have dominated the East in the regular season the last two years, but in both cases I feel their coach pushed them too hard in the regular season, and they entered the playoffs tired and injury prone. It also doesn't help that the Bulls offense without Rose is completely stagnant.

:arrow: The Nuggets staved off elimination for the second game in a row, and are headed to LA for game 7. I still expect the Lakers to wake up and win it, but I give a lot of credit to the Nuggets for not giving up after the series became 3-1 in LA's favor. I'm hoping for a Denver upset, but my brain tells me a Lakers win is more likely. Whoever wins will be tired from this series, and headed on the road to OKC to face a young and rested OKC team. This all but guarantees a Thunder game 1 win in the next series.

:arrow: Celtics closed out the Hawks. Their reward is homecourt advantage against the 76ers. The Sixers are young and run hard, which potentially is a problem for the older Celtics, but I just don't see them putting up much of a fight. The Sixers barely beat a Bulls team who was decimated by injury. Hell, the Sixers feel lucky just to be in the playoffs, let alone the second round. The Celtics on the other hand know this is likely their last shot at a title. Smart money says Celts in 5.

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Post by Corey » 11 May 2012 12:29

I am predicting the thunder to win it all. The heat didn't look unbeatable against the Knicks. They should come ou of the East though. I don't think anyone else in the East is a serious contender. The Spurs are a good team but I don't like Tony Parker that much. Him having to go up against Westbrook and Harden should flustered him. The Lakers are a tough team with their size but they might even lose this round.

The Thunder are just too good in my opinion. Durant is the best scorer besides maybe Melo. Westbrook is the most athletic PG. Ibaka is insane. Perkins has the size to much up with the bigs. Harden is crafty and is such a good shooter. He's like a new school Manu. Thunder are taking it this year. I hope the heat don't win.

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Post by fatbagger » 11 May 2012 18:10

The lakers are looking pretty bad, but getting Artest back will help a lot closing out the Nuggets. He will be the difference. Gasol is spent but I think he'll step it up and go 15 and 8 or something. They won't stand a chance against the "Thunder" though. Unless Kobe gets really hot that is.

The Thunder have a real chance to win it all. They have everything except a big time scoring big. But Ibaka, Collison and Perkins are more than capable. I don't see anyone going crazy down low on them. Harden would be a star starter on over half the teams in the league. With him leading the second unit and coming in on that crazy 3 guards and 2 forwards lineup they run, you better watch out. I could say a lot about this team but I think everyone knows by now. But what will really make the difference is D Fish. Without him I still worry about experience. But late in the season and so far in the playoffs D Fish has been playing really well. And making buckets that matter when they start to get off track. He solidifies this team. As for who they play the only team that scares me in the west is San Antonio and the Heat in the east.

Spurs finally have some young legs to go with the group. I don't know as much about this team as the others in the playoffs. I know they are good and I know they're the spurs.

Miami is Miami. I don't think they can handle Westbrook, Durant and Harden tearing them up. They will probably struggle offensively for stretches and the D just flat out can't dominate the Thunder like it does other teams. This would be the most fun match up to watch though. I really only see them wining if the spurs make it to the finals or possibly LA. They are soo good but the west has teams that play basketball. The heat to me seem to just athletisize teams. Big fast D, transition game, big dunks. And that works against average teams but when you play a good team they start to figure you out during a 7 game series. They adjust and attack weaknesses. Look at what the nuggets are doing to LA who does a similar thing but with length.

Celtics??? Who knows how far rondo will take them, KG is ballin and they play D. Kind of forgot about them and in the east I could see them making it to the Heat. OF course they could beat them but Miami is determined and probably won't lose until they face a better team with closer to the same level of talent. LA would be a close series but I don't know if they could do it, OKC has the best shot.

(didn't like this part of my post so I'll change it.) I feel like I'm hating on the Heat just because I don't like them. So I'll just say it so you know my bias. I don't like the Heat. I didn't like them before Lebron, and I really don't like them now. Also I am a huge Kobe fan and even more of a Sonics fan. I know, Lakers and Sonics fan???? Most Seattle fans HATE Kobe and the Lakers.
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Post by fatbagger » 14 May 2012 17:02

Miami vs. Indiana
The Pacers are deep but I just can't see them winning more than 2 games in this series. Bosh is out and that is a concern. It will hurt but Wade and Lebron are plenty capable of taking over this series. Miami's transition D will still be good and that will slow them down enough. Although Miami will probably struggle to break 100 without Bosh, so if the Heat have a bad night defensively or if the pacers get hot from 3 that will be their chance. Heat 4-2

Philly vs. Boston
Philly is more athletic but not very deep, and they lack playoff experience. while I think the experience issue could easily be overcome in this case, the Celtics just outclass them. Yeah the celtics look tired and old sometimes but that's what Rondo is for, and KG looks very motivated right now. Rondo will push the ball up the court. KG, PP and RA will keep them on track mentally and come up with big time baskets. Boston will win this series. 4-1

LAC vs. SAS
The spurs are the same machine they have been for years. Parker, Duncan and Ginobili are professionals and they added quality depth to the team as well. I don't remember who all they added besides Diaw, but it was just what the doctor ordered. They are scary good but I still feel like they are set up to beat mainly mediocre teams by playing right . And that makes me wonder how they will respond to being outmatched athletically against a well coached/experienced team. I think the Clippers have the talent but lack the experience together. If Chris Paul is healthy I can see him making it a series. This won't be a walk in the park for the Spurs But I think they take it. SAS 4-3

Lakers vs. Thunder
I'm just gonna watch this one. Thunder will push the tempo and give the Lakers bigs some trouble. Artest will give Durant some trouble but he will find a way to be productive. Westbrook and Harden will cause the most trouble. Westbrook will pull up and sink jumpers loosening up the inside for Ibaka and Perkins to have a little production. Harden won't be bothered inside by the bigs of LA, he's crafty. Both of them will push the pace and create easy buckets. D Fish will keep them on track when LA starts to dominate. As for the Lakers, they need their bigs to come up big and they need it the whole series. Not just for a few games. Unfortunately I just don't see it. I have no faith in Gasol or Bynum being good consistently throughout the series. I love Kobe but let's be honest, he just can't do it alone anymore. He needs someone else to rely on now and no one will do it for him. I do think Bynum can be that just not yet. The Lakers are to inconsistent. I still give them a chance to win the series but not a good one. Thunder win 4-2



As a side not I was thinking about the Knicks and the Mello, Amar'e situation. It's not working, duh! But you can't trade Amar'e due to contract issues and where would be a good fit for Mello . I suggest that the Celtics(who plan on gutting the team after this year) trade Paul Pierce for Carmello. This would give the Celtics some much needed youth and talent. The strong but humble personalities of Ray and KG could keep him from doing his own thing all the time and Doc is a good defensive minded coach. I would still see them as a good defensive team with mellow and also Mellow and Rondo would be amazing. The Knicks would get a quality player in PP. I also think that PP would allow Amare to play his game and Jeremy Lin to run the point better. Both teams would be dramatically better IMO. I like it.
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Post by C-Fan » 15 May 2012 09:30

Thanks for your thoughts Dan. It's interesting you see the Spurs-Clippers series going 7. I think it'll be more like Spurs in 5 or 6.

:arrow: When I heard Boston was facing Philly in the second round, I figured Boston would destroy the Sixers. 5 games tops. But in the first game the Celtics had to rally hard to eke out a one point win, and last night they lost game two in Boston by one point. Looks like this series will be much more competitive than I expected.

:arrow: I watched parts of Lakers-Thunder game 1 last night. Thunder dominated and were up by 30 for most of the second half, but I don't want to read too much into that. I think the key to the series will be how well the Lakers run their high low game with Bynum and Gasol, and how well the Thunder bigs can defend against it. Kendrick Perkins injury and how he deals with it will have a big impact on this. I give the advantage to the Thunder in this series for a few reasons (well-rested after sweeping mavs, as opposed to the lakers who finished a game 7 two days before starting the Thunder series), and I think they'll take it in 5 or 6 games.

:arrow: Heat-Pacers hasn't held my attention. The Bosh injury will hurt them, but I think that just changes it from being a Heat sweep to being a Heat victory in 6. I don't know, maybe I haven't paid enough attention...did Bosh defend Hibbert? I guess that could be a big impact. My gut tells me though that the Heat will be in the ECF, and most likely in the Finals after that.

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Post by C-Fan » 18 May 2012 07:00

C-Fan wrote: I think it'll be more like Spurs in 5 or 6 .
Spurs are now up 2-0 in the series, and neither game has been close. Spurs in 5 looks the most likely, but it could even be a sweep. The Spurs are healthy, haven't lost in the playoffs, and have something like a 17 game win streak going back to the regular season. The Spurs are looking scary.


I still don't have a good read on the Celtics-Sixers series. The first two games were much closer than I expected, but in Game 3 the Celts dominated. I still expect the Celts to win the series, but I have no idea how long it will take. There's part of me that thinks the Celts got motivated for Game 3, because they saw that Bosh got hurt in the Heat series. You know they have to be thinking that the Bosh injury will either mean they'll face the Pacers in the ECF, or a much weakened Heat team, either which opens the doors for the Finals in a way they might not have considered before.

C-Fan wrote: :arrow: I watched parts of Lakers-Thunder game 1 last night. Thunder dominated and were up by 30 for most of the second half, but I don't want to read too much into that.
That was a good decision, considering Game 2 was won by a single basket, and the Lakers were up 7 with two minutes left. I think Game 2 shed a lot more light on the series. The Lakers showed they could be competitive if they slowed the Game down and pounded the ball to their bigs, but they also showed they couldn't close, and that they have to play perfect to beat the Thunder. Can the Lakers win 4 of the next 5 games against the Thunder? The answer has to be no. I see the Thunder closing them out in 5 games.

C-Fan wrote: :arrow: Heat-Pacers hasn't held my attention. I don't know, maybe I haven't paid enough attention...did Bosh defend Hibbert? I guess that could be a big impact.
Well, the series has my attention now. Apparently, Bosh did indeed defend Hibbert, and the Heat have no backup centers worth a damn. Hibbert had 19/18/5 in the last game, which was a Pacers blowout. Sounds like it wasn't all due to Bosh being out, as Wade is apparently playing badly too. A lot of the pundits are now ruling out the Heat from winning the series, but really, if the Heat win Game 4 they have home court advantage again. And I think it's insane to underestimate a team with LeBron and Wade on it, even if they have no help at all. I wouldn't bet money either way as to who will advance, which is really a compliment to the Pacers given that I initially predicted they'd be out in 5. Excited to see how this one turns out.

While it's still early, I have the feeling that the Western Finals will be the real finals. Like, whoever comes out of the West will beat whoever comes out of the East. It sort of feels like that time period at the end of the 90s and the beginning of the 00s when the WCF was the real series you watched, and the actual Finals were like a formality. I really hope the Spurs don't win it again.

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Post by C-Fan » 25 May 2012 07:33

Update on playoffs, and a review of how my predictions have gone.
On May 5, C-Fan wrote: :arrow: The Bulls ... and even if they win their series they probably don't make it past round 2. ..
Bulls were in trouble when Rose went down, and doomed when Noah went down a couple games later. Sure enough, they lost to the Sixers in the first round.
On May 5, C-Fan wrote:
:arrow: Dwight Howard had back surgery before the playoffs, and is out. Similar to the Rose injury, I think this means Orlando is doomed. I doubt they win their first round series...
Sure enough, Magic lost and lost badly. Latest word on the street, is that Orlando is looking to trade Howard before the summer ends. I would too.
On May 5, C-Fan wrote:
:arrow: The Mavericks and the Knicks are already down 0-3 in their series, and I'd bet money the Jazz join them tonight. In NBA history, no team has ever come back from a 0-3 deficit. i wouldn't be surprised if all three of these series end up being sweeps....
Mavs and Jazz were swept, and Knicks lost in 5. No real surprises here.

On May 5, C-Fan wrote:
:arrow: I fully expect the West will be won by the Thunder or the Spurs. I really hope it's the Thunder.
Western Finals start on Sunday between these two teams.
On May 5, C-Fan wrote:
East predictions:
:arrow: If there's a darkhorse team in the East playoffs, it's the Celtics. I actually expect to see them in the East Finals with the Heat.
If they win Game 7, the East Finals will indeed be Heat and Celtics.
On May 5, C-Fan wrote: :arrow: The Heat are a strong team with an easy path to the East Finals, and a comparatively much easier path to the Finals than any West team. I wouldn't be surprised to see them win it all frankly.
I would be surprised now if they won it all. Who knows what shape Bosh is in when he comes back, but if they had trouble with the Pacers without him, they have no chance against the Thunder or Spurs if he isn't 100%.

In a nutshell, my predictions for the East and West Finals were both correct (i'd be surprised if the Sixers win game 7), but the Spurs/Thunder got there more quickly than I expected, while the Heat/Celtics are getting there a lot more slowly and weakly than I expected.

As for my predictions from this point:

:arrow: My heart has the Thunder winning the West, then beating the Celtics in the Finals.
:arrow: My head has the Spurs winning the West, then beating the Heat in the Finals.
:arrow: From an entertainment perspective, I would love to see the Celtics beat the Spurs in the Finals. Seeing the Spurs lose to anybody in the Finals really, would be great.

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Post by C-Fan » 11 Jun 2012 09:36

The NBA Finalists are set!

:arrow: The Thunder rallied to win 4 in a row against the Spurs, after starting off 0-2 against them. That exceeeded my wildest hopes. This will be the Thunder's first trip to the Finals. The Sonics were last in the Finals in 96, when they had Kemp and Payton and lost to Jordan's Bulls.

:arrow: Heat-Celtics went 7 games! Didn't get to watch any of them, since I don't have Cable and the East Finals weren't online. Sounds like LeBron isn't wilting in the 4th quarters this year, so looks like they might have a shot in the Finals.

:arrow: Finals start on Tuesday, and the Thunder have home court advantage. To tell the truth, i really don't know who's going to win this one. If Bosh is really healthy, I think I'd slightly favor the Heat, despite the home court advantage of OKC. The key question I envision affecting this series, is how well can the Thunder's defense deal with LeBron and Wade? I think if Sefolosha and Ibaka play well and somewhat limit LeBron and Wade, then the Thunder take it. The Heat have no answer for Westbrook and they also have no bench...but the Big 3 on the Heat can do a lot by themselves.

I'm going to root for the Thunder, but really I wouldn't mind either team winning. It's not the Lakers or Spurs, so I'm happy. I think it'd be nice to see a small market team win one though.

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Post by C-Fan » 19 Jun 2012 12:03

Game 4 of the NBA Finals is tonight. For those who haven’t been following, the Miami Heat now lead the Finals 2-1. The first two games of the Finals happened in OKC, the middle three take place in Miami, and the last two occur in OKC. So basically the Heat stole homecourt advantage by splitting the first two games in OKC, then won the first game in Miami. If the Thunder win tonight, they reclaim homecourt advantage.
Tonight’s game is crucial. If the Heat win, they’ll have a 3-1 advantage in the series, and those teams almost never lose (the only time I remember it happening in my lifetime was in 06, when the Suns beat the Lakers after being down 3-1. Beautiful.) But yeah, basically a Heat win would all but seal up the Finals for them. On the other hand, if the Thunder win we’ll have an even series.

So what’s likely to happen? Hard to say. Every game has been close. The Heat had a lead in game 1, but the Thunder stormed back to win it easily. In the second and third games the Thunder offense stalled when Durant got in foul trouble (and also because Harden didn’t do enough). They were still pretty close going into the final moments. Given how close each game has been, it could really go either way.

I really hope the Thunder win, more than anything because it’d make it a competitive Finals, which would be great for us fans.

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Post by C-Fan » 22 Jun 2012 06:36

Heat won last night. I would have liked a longer series just for the added entertainment, but with the way the Thunder were playing this was a merciful end. I've never seen such horrid three point defense in my life...the Thunder coach really didn't do a good job making adjustments.

The media will focus pretty hard on this being LeBron's first championship, and it's well deserved. That said, here are some other players on the Heat who also picked up their first rings:

:arrow: Bosh- well deserved. He never had a good team til the Heat, and he deserves a lot of credit for their success this postseason. Somebody needs to rebound, and that's him.

:arrow: Mike Miller- Hit 7 threes in the clinching game. I didn't expect that at all. But yeah, classy vet, props to him for getting a ring.

:arrow: Shane Battier- Long time favorite of mine. Happy that such a fundamentally sound player now has a ring.

:arrow: Juwan Howard- Yes, he's still in the NBA. And yes, he's the last member of the Fab Five to be in the NBA. He is now the only member of the Fab Five to have won a ring. Props.

:arrow: Eddy Curry- Wow. This guy has a ring? I don't know that he played a single minute this season. Pretty sure he didn't play in the postseason. But yeah, he now has more rings than Steve Nash, Karl Malone, Pat Ewing, and Charles Barkley combined. Crazy.

Overall a good NBA season. Some good playoff series, and I got to watch a lot of games. The Spurs and the Lakers didn't win, so that's a small victory for me. The Heat aren't the most popular team out there, but you can't take away the fact that they were the best team at the end of the season.

See you all in this thread next year.

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