2014-2015 NBA Season

[C-Fan]

Better late than never?

Here's the thread for us to discuss the 2014-15 NBA season.

Let's start with a recap of some notable occurrences so far:

The Thunder entered the pre-season as title contenders, if not title favorites. Then Durant went out with injury, followed shortly thereafter by Russel Westbrook. Suddenly, a team that I expected to win over 60 games this year has started off at 5-13. Making matters worse, they play in the Western Conference, where even good teams don't always make the playoffs (remember, the Suns won 48 games last year and didn't make the West playoffs). That said, if anybody can drag a team to the West playoffs after a 5-13 start, it'd be Durant and Westbrook. That'd also set up the intriguing storyline of the West playoffs having a first round matchup of the #1 or #2 seed in the West against a Thunder team that's a lot more talented than their record. Would a #1 seed in the West try and tank the end of the season to avoid a matchup with the Durant/Westbrook Thunder? It's possible. But first the Thunder need to hope they can dig out of their current hole and even make the cut. Which brings us to notable point #2:

The West is even stronger this year than last year. Every team in the top 7 slots in the West has a win percentage over 72%. In the East, only 1 team has a win percentage 72% or higher (Raptors). Two teams in the West have a 500 record, and both are out of the playoffs. In the East, a 500 record would have you with the 6th seed. This is even crazier, given the fact that Western teams play 50/82 games against OTHER Western teams. So a 500 record in the West means you are stronger than a team in the East with a 500 record, because you got it against harder competition.

Who wins the East? Before the season started, many people were guessing the Cavs. I still wouldn't count them out, but I think there are serious problems going on over there. I remember when the LeBron Heat started off slow their first year, everybody panicked...but this time feels different. I think if the Bulls can stay healthy, they come out of the East. The Raptors are surprisingly good, but with DeRozan's injury I think the Cavs and Bulls (and maybe Wiz) will overtake them. I also don't trust the Raptors or Wiz lack of experience in the playoffs. My money is on the Bulls.

Anthony Davis is borderline unfair. Already transcendent defensively, he's developed a solid midrange game? At this point of the season he's averaging 25 points, 11.5 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, and 3 blocks a game. And he's only 21! I love his game so much, I actually bought tickets to see him when he came to play the Nuggets. Unfortunately, he had a bad game that night. But yeah, worth watching any chance you get.

Pistons are still terrible. This one was a bit of a surprise to me. I think I overestimated Stan Van Gundy's coaching ability, and also expected all the young guys (Andre Drummond, Greg Monroe, Pope) to make a jump in ability. So far nothing promising.

I'll check in periodically. I'd love to hear other people's thoughts and opinions too!

[C-Fan]

Some quick thoughts:

At one point this season the Warriors were 21-2, and the 76ers were 2-21. I'm not sure which is more amazing to me.

Anthony Davis is straight beasting. Now if only he had a real coach or some usable teammates. It'll be interesting to see if he stays in NOLA or moves when he has the chance.

Don't look now, but the Thunder have won 7 straight and are on the verge of breaking into the playoff picture in the West. Right now, I'd predict they enter the playoffs as the 6th seed. But really, all that matters is that they get in at all. Even if they come in as the 8 seed, they'll be the scariest 8th seed in the history of the NBA.

This is my favorite play of the year so far. One of the Warriors loses his shoe on offense, and on the next possession back his teammate tries to pass the shoe to him. Tyson has other ideas:

[C-Fan]

Don't look now, but the Thunder have won 7 straight and are on the verge of breaking into the playoff picture in the West. Right now, I'd predict they enter the playoffs as the 6th seed. But really, all that matters is that they get in at all. Even if they come in as the 8 seed, they'll be the scariest 8th seed in the history of the NBA.

So I entered last night's Warriors-Thunder game with this mindset, and in the first half Durant was unreal. He scored 30 points in under 20 minutes, with nutso efficiency, and it was beautiful to watch. Then he reinjured his foot, and had to sit out the second half of the game. Hopefully it's nothing too serious, and he's back in a couple games at full strength. That said, it was a scary reminder that the Thunder aren't guaranteed to even make the playoffs, and that Durant and Westbrook both need to be healthy when they get there if they're going to do any real damage.

The Mavericks traded for Rondo! I'm cautiously optimistic about this trade. It's a bit of a weird trade, since its hard to peg Rondo's value. He was injured last year, and he hasn't really looked the same since...but really the argument could be made that he hasn't looked good since the Big 3 disbanded. He's a good defender, so that should be an upgrade for the Mavs, but he can't shoot, and that doesn't fit with the Mavs overall system. I'm hopeful though that he'll work out, since the Mavs coach is the best coach in the NBA after Pops, and Rondo is smart. I think having Dirk, Tyson Chandler, Monta, and Chandler Parsons to pass to will maximize his talents.

I can't wait until the playoffs. I think the Eastern playoffs will be a bore until the conference finals, much as it has been the past 2 years. But the West should be a show from the get go.

[Asmus]

Hey Jedi Ken

I haven't posted in here, since I haven't been able to watch any games. But I still very much enjoy reading your thoughts.

Also Knicks have been terrible and with the trade today/yesterday they are also the most swaggerless team in the world.

No realness on the Knickstape no mo'

Also I thought this deserved to be in here:

[C-Fan]

Love that drawing. Good jorb!

As for the Knicks... they really are in a tight spot as an organization. The trade yesterday was good in that they gave themselves a lot of salary relief, which may pay off next year. But that's assuming they can lure another star to come play with Melo, and that's not guaranteed or anything. The price they paid for this salary relief was giving away Shumpert for basically nothing. I mean, he wasn't a great fit in NYC, but you'd hope they'd get something for him.

So now as a franchise the Knicks basically have all their hopes tied to the chance a superstar joins Melo in NYC in the immediate future. There's no long term plan there, since Melo is on the wrong side of 30, and he's starting to break down. If the Knicks dont get him help in the next 2 years or so, this will be the second lost decade in a row for the franchise. Kinda depressing.

[C-Fan]

Thought you might enjoy this column, which is a farewell letter to JR Smith from the Knicks:

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/princ ... j-r-smith/

[C-Fan]

Some scattered thoughts:

The West is wide open, and everybody knows it. In the past few weeks, a slew of West teams have made "win now" moves where they've traded future flexibility in an attempt to win it all this year. As a fan, I think that's what every team who thinks they could win should do. So props to Memphis (Jeff Green), Dallas (Rondo), OKC (Brook Lopez) for going all-in.

All-star is coming up soon. Looking at the initial voting returns, the only selections I really have a problem with are Kobe, Wade, and Carmelo. In Kobe and Carmelo's cases, they've both missed too much time, and their teams are too bad to justify appearances. In Wade's case, I just don't think his play justifies him over other East guards like Kyle Lowry. Hopefully the coaches select the right reserves, so we don't get any egregious snubs.

Cleveland is a mess. At least the GM is trying to make the team better. Waiters is a decent player, but I think JR Smith is going to work out better. And Mozgov definitely fills a glaring hole in their lineup. But all these changes are going to take time to gel, if they gel at all. I don't see this team beating the Hawks/Bulls/Wizards in a 7 game series. I just don't. If they lose in the first round to anybody, does that mean Love walks? The way LeBron phrased his homecoming, it sounded like he painted himself into a corner and could never leave again. But could he?

This shot by Booker is one of the craziest shots I've ever seen. Love it.

[Asmus]

Finally watched a game and I am gonna start watching more now.

All I can say about todays game this song says much better:

[C-Fan]

Quick check in.

Westbrook's February was insane. Dude basically averaged a triple double, and was straight beasting. Even with his efforts though, the Thunder aren't doing that great over that stretch. I thought that after the trade deadline when the Suns lost Dragic and Thomas, that they were ceding the 8 spot to OKC. But the Suns are only a couple games back of them (though they have the hardest schedule left in the season), and the Pelicans weathered the Davis injury a lot better than I expected (winning 4/6 while he was out). 8th seed isn't guaranteed to anybody yet.

MVP race really looking like it'll come down to Curry and Harden. Curry is my favorite player to watch in the league, but I think I'd have to give it to Harden. Curry has a lot more help on his team, while Harden is carrying the Dwight-less Rockets all by himself.

LeBron is back! With the way injuries are hitting the Bulls, and the Raptors slumping, I think Cleveland has to be considered the favorites to come out of the East. I know the Hawks are still playing great, but I just wouldn't bet against LeBron.

[C-Fan]

Another quick check in:

Westbrook now has 10 triple doubles on the season. That's amazing. Unfortunately, his team is hanging onto the 8 spot in the west by a fingernail, and even if they do make it I think the Warriors curbstomp them. Without Ibaka and Durant, the Thunder defense just isn't good enough, and in the playoffs against a good coach the other team should slow down Westbrook.

I also think the Blazers are doomed in the playoffs. Wes Matthews was their second most important player, and with him out they have to move Afflalo into the starting lineup, which makes their bench garbage again. I don't see them making it out of the first round.

Steve Nash retired yesterday. One of my all time favorite players, and definitely the greatest Sun of all time. I'm glad I was able to see him play live a few times in my life. While it sucks that injuries forced him to retire, at least that happened while he was on the Lakers. I feel like him going to the Lakers and making them pay him a big salary while he couldn't play, was like the final assist he gave to the Suns.

Playoffs start in about 3 weeks. Like last year, I'm very excited for the Western series, but don't think I'll tune into the East until the conference finals.

[Kylescook]

Everything I know about basketball comes from sega genesis "NBA Jam" and this thread.

[C-Fan]

Everything I know about basketball comes from sega genesis "NBA Jam" .

That was probably meant as a joke, and up until about 5-7 years ago it was. But recently analytics have shown that the three best shots in the NBA are:

1. Free throws
2. Layups
3. 3 points

So the old NBA Jam model of nothing but dunks and 3s, has actually turned out to be ahead of its time. This style of play is probably best embodied by James Harden, who pretty much only shoots in threes and dunks, and gets fouled at a higher rate than almost anybody in the NBA.



Shifting gears, there's about 12 games remaining in the season. If the Warriors win 8 of them (very conservative estimate), they'll finish with 65 wins. If that happens, I can't see anybody other than Curry winning the MVP, just due to the "best player on the historically good team" argument. The only time that didn't happen was when Karl Malone stole MJ's MVP in 1997, and most people agree that was a travesty.

[Kylescook]

I'm happy I posted in here after seeing the response. That's a funny story. Thanks for the education.

[C-Fan]

If I were a coach, I'd make my team members on the bench ALWAYS wear their warmup jackets, especially if they're the same color as the opposing team's jersey that night. Cause apparently this can happen:

https://vine.co/v/O3vnmBX73XL

[Asmus]

Ken-san: What are your playoff-predictions? I know it is not even sure who will make playoffs yet, but you could at least get started.

Also, I envy the beard but Curry is hotter in the MVP race.

[C-Fan]

Oh man, its way hard to predict anything, since so many seeds are undecided. In the West, the only spots that we know for sure are:

-Warriors in 1 spot
-Blazers in 5 spot
-Mavs in 7 spot

So we don't even know who anybody is facing. That said, I feel confident predicting the Warriors will beat whoever (thunder or pelicans), and the blazers will lose to whoever. Matchups will be finalized tomorrow...I dont think that's ever happened before, where the day before the season ends there are NO matchups set in stone in a conference.

In the East...who cares. I think its a safe bet we'll see the Hawks and Cavs in the conference finals, and my money is on the Cavs. I think the Bulls are the only dark horse in the conference.

[C-Fan]

Some thoughts on the playoffs:

Round 1 of the playoffs has been OK. The Warriors game 3 was the best game I've seen so far, where they Warriors started off the 4th quarter down 20 points, but forced OT on a Curry 3 and won in the extra session. Most series so far haven't held my interest though, other than Spurs Clippers.

Chicago-Cavs in the second round should be a good one. I think this is the de facto Eastern Finals, as either of these teams should be able to beat the Wizards/Hawks in the actual ECF. I would have favored Cavs over Bulls in this series, but now that Love is injured and JR Smith is suspended for the first two games, I think I have to favor the Bulls. But not by much.

Warriors-Grizz is set for one of the western semis. Couldn't pick 2 teams with more different styles. I really like the Grizzlies, but I just don't think they stand a chance in this series. The only position where they have an advantage is power forward, where Z-Bo will cause problems for Draymond Green. But if Bogut stays healthy, I put both their defense at the same level, while the Warriors have insanely good offense, and the Grizz have poor offense. Without Conley, the Grizz don't stand a chance. I see the Warriors taking this in 5.

Rockets are getting a lot of rest, after finishing the Mavs in 5 while the Spurs/Clip are still waiting to do Game 7. If I'm the Rockets, I think I'd rather face the Clippers. While overall the clippers are younger and more athletic than the Spurs, the Spurs can put Kawhi on Harden, while the Clips don't have anybody who can defend Harden at that level. Take away Harden's effectiveness, and the Rockets aren't that scary.

[Asmus]

We have bit of a betting game going on at my job.



I am not winning so far..

[C-Fan]

Not a lot of blogging on my part, but really enjoying the playoffs.

Finals are set, with the Cavs and Warriors. Cavs made it with a 12-2 record while the Warriors did it with a 12-3 record. So far, I've only found two series to be interesting at all (Clips-Spurs, then Clips-Rockets).

I'm predicting the Warriors win the Finals in 5. Worst case scenario 6. I just don't see the Cavs having enough firepower to match the Warriors. With Kyrie injured, the Cavs second best player is JR Smith...I just don't see that beating a Warriors team with Curry, Klay, Draymond, Bogut, Iggy, and a much stronger bench.

Some quick thoughts on legacy, for a few players, depending how things shake out.

LeBron. He's currently 2 and 3 in the Finals (champs in 12 and 13, loser in 07, 11, 14). Winning would give him 3 championships, and a Finals average of 0.500. Losing would drop him to 2-4, which is kind of underwhelming for a guy people are comparing to Jordan. More than any of that though, if LeBron wins this would more than make up for "The Decision" when he left for Miami. Cleveland hasn't won anything since 1964, so a championship from native son LeBron would be huge for the city, and for LeBron's legacy.

Steve Kerr. As a player he won 3 championships with the Bulls, and 2 with the Spurs. He has some of the best shooting percentage seasons ever. As a GM, he did OK with the Suns, but didn't win anything. He won 67 games in his rookie season as a coach, and took his team to the Finals. Even if he doesn't win the Finals, I think he's in HOF contention, but a win has got to guarantee him a spot. Not a lot of people won 5 champs as a player and 1 as a coach, much less as a rookie coach.

Curry. Yeah he won MVP, but most people still consider LeBron the best player on the planet. Even if the Warriors win, that probably won't change...but it certainly helps vindicate Curry's MVP. It would also cap off a pretty much perfect season for Curry: MVP, lead vote getter in All Star game, 3 point champion in ASG, set record for most 3s in regular season, won 67 games, 1st team all NBA, set record for most 3s in a single playoffs...champion? That would be a pretty much perfect season for an individual player.

[Asmus]

I very much agree with everything. I liked the Wiz - Hawks series though.

Here is a drawing I did of The Answer after watching the new documentary on him. I definitely recommend it.