2016-2017 NBA Season!

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Re: 2016-2017 NBA Season!

Post by C-Fan » 19 Jan 2017 09:20

Two big injuries with potentially big repercussions happened recently.

First is Chris Paul is out 6-8 weeks with a thumb injury. Beyond the fact that I have him on my Fantasy team and this really hurts my season, this also has some pretty big real world consequences for the Clips. They're still without Blake due to his injury, which gives further credence to the theory that the Clippers are actually cursed. Remember, the Clips have never been to a conference finals, and both CP3 and Blake will both be free agents this summer. They were in the 4-5 seed before Paul's injury, so now I expect their best hope is to go into the playoffs as the 6 or 7 seed. Which means they'd need to win 2 series on the road to make the conference finals. What happens if they don't make the conf finals? Unclear. Maybe Chris or Blakes walks, maybe they have to do a big trade...who knows. But I know the franchise would feel a lot better if this season doesn't go down as another: "everybody got hurt and we didn't do well in the playoffs" season. Like pretty much every season since CP3 joined them. The only potential silver lining I see here, is that if they slip out of the 4-5 matchup in the playoffs, they avoid facing the Warriors in the second round.

The other big injury that just happened is Rudy Gay going out for the season with an achilles injury. Why is this a big deal? Well, Gay announced at the start of the season that he wasn't re-signing in Sacramento. This meant that the Kings had to decide between trading him (which is hard, since teams can just wait til the summer and get him as a free agent, so only teams that needed him for a push this year would want him) or keeping him and chasing the 8th seed in the West. Up until the injury, they were still in 8th. Now? They can't trade him, since he can't help any teams this season, and any team that would want him would just wait til he's a free agent. He also can't help the Kings in their playoff chase. So basically worst case scenario for Sacto.

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Re: 2016-2017 NBA Season!

Post by C-Fan » 10 Mar 2017 13:50

About 5 weeks left before the playoffs. Some of the bigger questions out there:

:arrow: Who gets the 8th seed in the West? Right now Denver has a slight lead over Portland for it, and the Pelicans are still in the mix. Of those 3 teams, only Denver started the year with no playoff aspirations, so only they would see it as an unexpected bonus. The Blazers and Pelicans have way underperformed expectations, so making the playoffs would somewhat salvage/vindicate their seasons...and probably save some peoples' jobs. The other interesting part about the race for 8th, is that when the Kings traded Cousins to NO, one of the reasons that trade was considered so awful was that they were receiving the Pelicans pick in this year's lottery. The reason that was so bad, is that if the Pelicans started to win a lot of games with Cousins that could end up being a really poor pick. Kings are getting lucky so far that the Pelicans haven't improved much with Cousins, so the pick could still hold some value.

:arrow: The presumed Finals re-match is still more likely than not, but both teams are missing one of their key superstars (Durant for GSW, Love for Cleveland). I think the Cavs have a better chance of reaching the Finals without their injured superstar. But in both cases the question will be: when do they get their guy back? And will that be in time to help them in the Finals?

:arrow: Who's going to get the MVP? It's insane that we have a guy averaging a trip double with 30 points, and he's still not the clearcut favorite. Harden is averaging close to the same numbers for a better team, and doing it more efficiently. And then you have Kawhi, who is carrying his team, whose team COULD still finish with the best record in the NBA, and he's close to doing it with 50/40/90 numbers...PLUS defense. I hate to lobby for a Spur, but that is pretty elite level play.

:arrow: Rookie of the Year is similarly weird. You had one player who stood out above everybody else (Embiid), but he only played 31 games...on a minutes restriction to boot. Can you give it to somebody who played that little? If not, do you give it to the next most talented rook who played more games (Saric)? But he only turned it on in the past couple months. For season-long production you have a guy like Brogdon...who averaged like 9 points a game. Very weird race. For me, I'd probably go with Saric myself. Clearly though, Embiid should have the highest ceiling career, provided he doesn't injure himself out a la Greg Oden.

On the Fantasy NBA side, I think we're in the final week of the season. Then it's like 2 weeks of Fantasy NBA playoffs. My league was very top heavy, with just a handful of active owners. That made it very strange, as there was always good players available on the waiver wire. It also allowed me to do some moves that would be considered risky in a normal league, because I had built up enough of a cushion in the standings that I could afford to take risks. Some have paid off (picked up Saric, Pau, and Khris Middleton off the waiver wire), while others have not (trading Myles Turner and Tristan Thompson for Embiid, who then played 0 games for me before being shut down for the season). I'm feeling optimistic for the fantasy playoffs though. My team currently includes KAT, Jokic, CP3, Wall, Whiteside, Dragic, Saric, Middleton and Pau to name some of the more reliable guys.

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Re: 2016-2017 NBA Season!

Post by C-Fan » 13 Mar 2017 06:35

Regular season in my fantasy NBA league ended last night. I finished the season with the second best record overall, but it was also second in my "conference" so I'm starting the fantasy playoffs as the 3rd seed. Really doesn't matter, as my main goal is to make Finals, and I like my chances to do so. I expect I'll face Tu Vu (BAP class of 1997) in the Finals. The only real negative, is the league was set up so it goes to the end of the regular season in the NBA. That's problematic because the last week of the NBA season most playoff teams rest their good players, which totally fucks up fantasy NBA. Ideally, you want to set your fantasy NBA league to end 2 weeks before the regular season does so you avoid this. That said, I might be able to take advantage of this in the homestretch by adding players on teams that are still fighting for 8 seeds. We'll see.

So for the next 2 weeks I face another owner in the semis, then hopefully the 2 weeks after that I'm in the Finals.

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Re: 2016-2017 NBA Season!

Post by C-Fan » 17 Mar 2017 06:16

While my Embiid trade gamble didn't pay off, I think I was right to do it. My thinking was that my team is good enough to make finals, but not a lock to beat Tu Vu's team. So I'd rather gamble to give myself a chance to win it all, than play it safe and almost certainly lose in the finals. Along those lines, I made another gamble a couple days ago. When Kevin Love was injured a few weeks back, it sounded like he might be out for the remainder of the season, so his owner in my league cut him loose. But I saw a report a couple nights ago that Love was back practicing, and that he could be back as early as Saturday, though likely with a minutes cap. The way my team is currently constructed, my last 1-2 spots on my team are players I rotate out depending on performance, so I took the risk of dropping one of them to get Love. The idea being that even if he missed the next week and came back the following with a minutes restriction, he might be back strong enough in the final 2 weeks to help me beat Tu. In a surprise, Love actually made his debut last night! He had a 20 minute cap, but he still almost double-doubled, and got me more points than the guy I dropped to get him (MKG). I expect he'll sit out some back to back games and they'll cap his minutes for a while, but I'm optimistic this move gives me a better shot in Finals against Tu.

Off the top of my head, my team now currently consists of: KAT, Jokic, CP3, Wall, Whiteside, Dragic, Saric, Love, Middleton,Pau, TJ McConnell, Marvin Williams...I'm forgetting one dude. But yeah, that's pretty solid for Fantasy purposes.

I wonder if I'll catch any March Madness this weekend.

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Re: 2016-2017 NBA Season!

Post by C-Fan » 27 Mar 2017 08:39

C-Fan wrote:
13 Mar 2017 06:35
my fantasy NBA league... my main goal is to make Finals, and I like my chances to do so.
Done. I won the first round of the playoffs in the winners' bracket, so for the season I will either finish in first or second place. 8)
C-Fan wrote:
13 Mar 2017 06:35
I expect I'll face Tu Vu (BAP class of 1997) in the Finals.
This also came to pass, though Tu had a much narrower margin of victory in his series.
C-Fan wrote:
13 Mar 2017 06:35
The only real negative, is the league was set up so it goes to the end of the regular season in the NBA. That's problematic because the last week of the NBA season most playoff teams rest their good players, which totally fucks up fantasy NBA. .
Sure enough, that's where we're at now. The last 2 weeks of the season can be really weird, as a lot of it depends on whether or not your players' teams are still fighting for playoff position or not. Depending how that goes for my guys, I may end up doing some weird moves in the last week of the season where I dump a top player who is resting, in favor of a backup who I know is actually going to play. As of right now though, I like my team a lot and I don't want to do anything panicky prematurely. It'd be cool to win, especially facing an old footbag friend in the final. Fingers crossed!

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NBA Playoffs!

Post by C-Fan » 19 Apr 2017 13:54

The Playoffs have started! I've only caught a few games so far, due to family visiting and the baby and whatnot. But man, playoff NBA is great. Just awesome seeing everybody try their hardest, seeing defenses and gameplans shift game to game as they make adjustments, etc.

Some initial observations/thoughts:

:arrow: Cavs were lucky to win game 1 against the Pacers. Cavs D is just not there. They may not need it to get to the Finals, but if they get their and look this disinterested in defense, the Warriors will shred them. Hell, this kind of lackluster defense may not get them past the Wizards or Bulls.

:arrow: I knew the Celts had weaknesses with rebounding, and that opposing defenses lock up in the playoffs, but I did not expect them to be exposed like this so early on. Part of that is that I remember the Bulls being dysfunctional all season long, but they're peaking at just the right time in a favorable matchup. Boston is in real danger of being out in the first round. At least they have good trade assets, but still, not what you'd hope for from a 1 seed.

:arrow: Watching the Warriors, it really feels unfair. They're so loaded with Curry/Durant/Klay/Green, that they always have the best player on the floor, and in some cases the 2 best players. I'm not really sure I see anybody in the West or East pushing them this year. Barring an injury to Curry/Durant, I think they have it wrapped up. Hell, might take an injury to both to make it a real issue.

:arrow: I still have the Cavs as favorites in the East, but would not be surprised if the winner of the Wiz/Bulls semis matchup upsets the Cavs. There, I said it.

EDIT: Oh yeah, and I did win my Fantasy NBA league. Woo! 8)

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NBA playoff predictions

Post by C-Fan » 21 Apr 2017 13:29

I wish I had written up some series predictions before they started. I'll do that for the next round for sure. For the record, here's how I predict things will shake out in each Conference's playoffs:

West first round winners:
:arrow: Warriors over Blazers in 4
:arrow: Spurs over Grizz in 6
:arrow: Clips over Utah in 7
:arrow: Rockets over Thunder in 5

East first round winners:

:arrow: Cavs over Pacers in 5
:arrow: Bulls over Celts in 5
:arrow: Bucks over Raptors in 6
:arrow: Wiz over Hawks in 5

In the West I see the Warriors beating everybody pretty comfortably. Out East, I'm not as confident in the Cavs as everybody else is. Their offense is great, but I just don't see the defense making it easy for them to beat whoever they face in the Conference Finals. I'd still favor them to win the East, but it won't be the kind of cake walk its been the past couple years.

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Re: 2016-2017 NBA Season!

Post by Asmus » 23 Apr 2017 08:24

I did these before the first game of this first round:

West first round winners:
:arrow: Warriors over Blazers in 4
:arrow: Spurs over Grizz in 4
:arrow: Clips over Utah in 7
:arrow: Rockets over Thunder in 5

East first round winners:

:arrow: Cavs over Pacers in 6
:arrow: Celts over Bulls in 7
:arrow: Raptors over Bucks in 7
:arrow: Wiz over Hawks in 5

Not gonna hit all of them. But I still feel pretty good about that. I feel like I saw some things.
I am considering putting money on the Warriors sweeping every round even finals.
I hope my man John Wall beats the Cavs. He has been amazing. People are sleeeping on that dude.


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Nice picks Asmus

Post by C-Fan » 24 Apr 2017 07:06

I like those series picks, especially before the Playoffs started. It looks like you were more bullish on the Spurs than I was, but other than that I generally would have agreed. So far I'd say the playoffs have gone about how I would have expected, with 2 exceptions:

:arrow: Bulls-Celtics has started weirdly, what with the Isaiah Thomas family situation combined with the bad rebounding matchup for the Celts. Now that Rondo is out with an injury and Thomas is looking more like his old self, I think the momentum has swung back to the Celts. But this matchup has not progressed at all the way I would have expected.

:arrow: Clips-Jazz has also not gone the way I expected. Before the series began, I would have given the edge to the Clips based on them having homecourt and more experience. And when Gobert got injured in the first minute of the first game, I thought for sure the Clips had the edge. But then Griffin went down for the season, Gobert only missed 3 games, and Joe Johnson went into a time machine to 2007. So now it's a 3 game series, and I honestly don't know how it's going to go. I'd even give slight edge to the Jazz at this point.

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NBA Conference Semis predictions!

Post by C-Fan » 28 Apr 2017 07:46

Got to watch a bunch of playoff games over the past few days, which has been a treat. Definitely feels like a different game, when both sides are trying their hardest, as opposed to random mid-season games.

A couple series have wrapped up, so let's see how my old predictions went, and make some new ones for the next round.
C-Fan wrote:
21 Apr 2017 13:29
West first round winners:
:arrow: Warriors over Blazers in 4
:arrow: Spurs over Grizz in 6
:arrow: Rockets over Thunder in 5
:arrow: Clips over Utah in 7
For the whole first round, I didn't get my predictions in until the series started, so can't take a lot of credit/pride on these calls. Next round will be a truer test. Anyway, on the Western side I correctly called the first 3 series. The last series hasn't concluded yet, but its looking likely the Clips go down in 6. Even if they force Game 7 at home, I think I'd still favor Utah. We knew it'd be close though, and it's shaking out that way.

C-Fan wrote:
21 Apr 2017 13:29
East first round winners:

:arrow: Cavs over Pacers in 5
:arrow: Bulls over Celts in 5
:arrow: Bucks over Raptors in 6
:arrow: Wiz over Hawks in 5
I was way more off in the East. Cavs swept the Pacers, but the games were close so that prediction doesn't feel off. The Raptors closed out the Bucks in 6, and I bet the Celts will close out the Bulls, so those two were wrong. I think the Wiz still will beat the Hawks, probably in 6, so that feels close enough.

Here are my predictions for the semis matchups that are set:

:arrow: Rockets over Spurs in 6. If the Spurs offense will continue to just be Kawhi, then I think the Rockets can focus on him and be OK on D. For the Rockets, I think it all comes down to how well Gordon, Anderson, and Williams shoot for the series. But I'd give Houston the advantage here.
:arrow: Warriors over Jazz/Clips in 5/4. I think the Warriors beat either of these teams easily. I think the Jazz are more likely to make it, but with all the Warriors shooting Gobert is gonna be drawn away from the paint and exposed. Clips don't have the personnel to hang with the Warriors and would be swept.
:arrow: Cavs over Toronto in 6. I know Toronto loaded up on guys like Tucker and Ibaka specifically to get ready for the Cavs, but they still looked shaky against the Bucks. They blew a 25 point lead last night, and almost went to 7 against the Bucks. The Cavs are not the Bucks. This could just as easily be Cavs in 5, but I'm going with 6.
:arrow: The last East semis is yet to be determined, and I'll wait til at least one team claims a spot there first. If I were the Cavs, I'd only be worried about the Wizards in the Eastern Finals. The other teams don't really scare me.

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Re: 2016-2017 NBA Season!

Post by Asmus » 02 May 2017 09:21

My predictions (I again did these before the first game):
Celtics – Wizards: 2-4
Cavaliers - Raptors: 4-1
Warriors - Jazz: 4-0
Spurs - Rockets: 2-4

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Re: 2016-2017 NBA Season!

Post by C-Fan » 05 May 2017 11:33

Good predictions.

So far in the semis it looks like the main stories are a couple key injuries. Parker is out for the Spurs, but I'm not sure how much that actually hurts them since I think Mills is more capable anyway. I guess it hurts their depth at least. And out East, Kyle Lowry has been banged up. That feels like a bigger deal, since he's their only real distributor and they faced an uphill battle to begin with. I feel like the only semis series that feels like a real battle is Celtics/Wizards. Boston is leading 2-1 now, but it feels like it could go 7. Rockets-Spurs could be a fun series if Harden breaks out of his funk. Warriors-Jazz feels boring, since one team seems so outmatched. Same with Raps-Cavs. No real interest in watching either of those series.

I wish they would be announcing awards over time, like they used to. This year they're doing something new, where they wait until June to announce all at once during some show. I get the appeal of the drama, but it also makes the playoffs feel a bit flatter.

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Grading my pre-season predictions

Post by C-Fan » 25 May 2017 19:41

NBA Finalists are set, so seemed like a good time to revisit my first post in this thread to see how I did on predictions.
C-Fan wrote:
25 Oct 2016 07:07

Here are some predictions from me for the NBA season:

:arrow: Durant will integrate seamlessly into the Warriors system. He's basically doing the exact same stuff Harrison Barnes was doing, but with better defense. He'll get more touches than Barnes, likely at Klay and Draymond's expense, but those guys will get better looks even if they get fewer looks.
Pretty seamless transition, and his defense was even better than I expected. Klay didn't really lose touches...Curry gave up more, but they seem to be in a nice balance now.
C-Fan wrote:
25 Oct 2016 07:07
:arrow: I think the Warriors won't chase 70+ wins this year, and I think they'll rest players a lot more. But I also think they'll stumble into 60+ wins just because they have so much talent. And if they blow out a lot of teams in 3 quarters, their guys will be getting rest that way too.
67 wins, no major injuries, no losses in the playoffs going into the Finals.
C-Fan wrote:
25 Oct 2016 07:07
:arrow: Finals has to be Warriors Cleveland. But yeah, before the first game of the season is even played, I'm calling it Warriors-Cavs final, with the Warriors winning.
So basically a 7 month wait for this to happen. Cavs have lost one game on their way to the Finals, and the Warriors zero. Kinda makes you feel like the regular season was played for no reason. I still agree with my prediction that the Warriors win.
C-Fan wrote:
25 Oct 2016 07:07
:arrow: Who will win rookie of the year? Simmons is pretty exciting with his passing, but he's also injured. He may have the best career, but I wouldn't be surprised if Dunn, Ingram or Saric end up having a better rookie campaign.
Turned out Simmons didn't play a single game, Dunn and Ingram were meh, Saric had a great second half and may win the award, and Embiid played and played well.
C-Fan wrote:
25 Oct 2016 07:07
:arrow: The Rockets should be significantly better this year than last year.
Another easy prediction, which also came to pass. They improved from 41 wins last year, to 55 this year, and they won a playoff series.

Kinda a predictable season to be honest, and the playoffs have felt below average in terms of excitement. Hopefully the Finals are awesome and make the 7 month wait worthwhile.

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Re: 2016-2017 NBA Season!

Post by Tjuggles » 26 May 2017 03:47

Impressive stuff Ken, much better than I could do.
TJ Boutorwick

"You can do anything" -Greg Nelson

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Warriors Win...and why that could be bad for the NBA

Post by C-Fan » 12 Jun 2017 20:22

That's the problem TJ; the Warriors over Cavs prediction wasn't a hard one. And if we get a couple more seasons where the Warriors are predestined to win the championship before the season starts, then people may tune out.
C-Fan wrote:
25 Oct 2016 07:07


:arrow: Finals has to be Warriors Cleveland. But yeah, before the first game of the season is even played, I'm calling it Warriors-Cavs final, with the Warriors winning.
The Warriors lost a total of ONE playoff game on their way to the Championship. Unless the Spurs or the Cavs make a major move to shake up their rosters, you figure the Warriors have to be heavy favorites to win it again. So if you're not a hardcore NBA fan, why bother tuning in until the Conference Finals or even the Finals? And if it ends up being another gentleman's sweep, then why bother tuning in at all?

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