Post
by C-Fan » 25 Oct 2016 08:30
I'm doing fantasy NBA again this year, again it's a 9 cat auction draft, $200 budget for 13 players. Last year I spent the most on any single player in the league on Anthony Davis, and it bit me in the butt. This year I took a different strategy, where I basically sat out the first 5 good players to hit the auction block. My thinking was, rather than spend the bulk of my money on 2 great guys, I'd spend my money on 5 really good guys who are a tier below or so. This is a tough strategy to pull off, cause when those first 5 good players come up and you see them leave the pool, you can't help but wish you bid on them. Of course, in the middle of the draft when the other owners have very little money, it feels good that you can outbid them on players who aren't superstars, but are 80% as good as them. Overall I feel I executed my strategy well, though I did leave $5 unspent at the end of the draft. My biggest problem at the end of the day is that I drafted a lot of point guards, centers and power forwards, so I'm really thin on the wing. I may need to do a trade to remedy this at some point, but even if I don't the positions I overdrafted give me stats in hard to fill categories like blocks, steals, and assists.
Here's my team, from most expensive to least, with some quick thoughts.
1. Karl Anthony Towns -$47- 23.5% of my budget for one player is nothing to sneeze at, but look at what some other owners paid for their top picks: Westbrook at $64, Durant at $62, Harden at $58,Curry at $60, LeBron at $58, Kawhi at $59. I'm expecting KAT will be better than a couple of those guys, and probably 90% as good as the rest, so the fact that I got him for 22% cheaper than that crop is pretty great. It also made me feel good, since players like Cousins, Paul George, and Giannis all went for about $46 in my league, and they are all generally considered worse prospects than KAT. In fantasy rankings I had been seeing KAT ranked between 3-6, so I was thrilled to get him for $47.
2. Chris Paul- $36- Here is where my strategy started to pay off. Whenever it was my turn to nominate players early on, I picked ones that I thought had inflated prices that I didn't want. The idea being that it'd encourage other people to spend money on players I didn't want, so halfway through the draft I'd have less competition to get guys I wanted. I didn't have specific players picked out, but rather a list of 10 or so that I would be aggressive if they remained unpicked by the middle of the draft. Chris Paul was one of the last first round talents to come up, and by the time he did many of the other owners had spent so much they needed to spread their remaining cash to fill out their rosters. That's how I got Paul for so cheap. Elite assists and steals, with a good health track record...definitely a top 10 player, and at a bargain price.
3. Hassan Whiteside - $33- Another potential top 10 player! Not sure how he slipped to me at this price...maybe name recognition is low? Just based on the fact that Wade and Bosh are gone, and they gave Whiteside a max contract, I figure he's a lock to get a ton of minutes. Between him and KAT I should have blocks category on lockdown for the season. I wouldn't be surprised if Whiteside ended the season with top 5 value, so to get him for half the price of what Westbrook went for felt great.
4. John Wall- $31- Another elite point guard. Between him and CP3, I should be set for assists and steals for the year. I probably would have been happy if Wall was the second best player on my team, so the fact that he's my fourth best made me feel great.
5. Victor Oladipo- $16- This felt like a bit of a gamble, but I was happy to take it. At this point in the draft I was pretty heavy at the point guard and center positions, and literally didn't have any shooting guards. Most of the SGs I liked were taken at prices I didn't want to touch, so when Oladipo came up I made the decision to bid high to ensure I have at least one solid player at that position. I'm excited for him too. With no Durant in OKC, somebody has to pick up the scoring load to help Westbrook, and Oladipo is the only one that makes sense. He should start and get a ton of minutes, so I'm optimistic I'll feel good about this pick at this price.
6. Nikola Jokic -$10- Another gamble, since I'm hoping he gets more minutes than last year and produces at similar per-minute levels. If he does though, he should help me a lot with rebounds, and give me some other stats you wouldn't expect from a center. Also nice to have a Nugget, so if I go to a home game I can root for him.
7. Goran Dragic -$8- Didn't feel awesome getting a 3rd point guard when I was still so thin on the wing, but the price was right. Looking at his stats last year when Wade didn't play was encouraging, and I fully expect he'll get the bulk of the guard minutes in Miami since his only real competition is Tyler Johnson. This felt like a good price to pay for above average assist stats, peppered with some other decent stats.
8. Zach LaVine-$6- I was definitely getting desperate to get some wings at this stage, and LaVine was probably my best option at 2 guard that was still on the table. I'm mostly expecting scoring with this pick, hopefully with some 3s, but not a lot of other great stats. But hey, he's my 8th best guy and he fills a position that I was very thin at. If he gets a few 30 point games over the season and doesn't kill me on TOs, I'll be happy.
9. Tristan Thompson -$3- Reliable rebounding for $3. Would have been nice to get a small forward here, but I'll take 10 rebounds a game this late in a draft at this cheap a price.
10. Aaron Gordon -$2- Didn't love this pick, since the forward positions in Orlando are going to be pretty crowded this year. I have a bad feeling Gordon won't get a ton of minutes, but I needed small forwards desperately, and he had the most upside. If he gives me average value and I can slot him in a slot I'm thin at, then this is great for $2.
11. Myles Turner -$1- Another forward who might be fighting for minutes at his position. I think he was my final pick though, and had the best projected stats by far. If this was a whiff, I don't feel too bad about it considering how strong the top half of my team is.
12. Josef Nurkic- $1- Another eastern euro nugget. He's going to start alongside Jokic, so hopefully that combo benefits both of them. If not, Nurk is good insurance if Jokic gets injured, and he was on my sleepers list. Stoked I got him for a buck.
13. Andre Iguodala -$1- I was certain somebody would bid on him, but nobody did, so I got him for a buck. I had 0 small forwards at the time I made this pick, so I was happy to get somebody this cheap. I think Iggy won't play as much as last year, and his stats will probably go down, but if he handles the ball in the second unit, then I might get some nice boosts in assists. But yeah, for $1 I thought this was a steal.
So how do I think I'll do? To be honest, I'd feel better if I had better wing depth. But in a 9 cat league I was excited to assemble a team with good FT shooting even at the big man positions, and I feel very good about my assists/steals/blocks categories. So assuming I have an advantage in those 4 categories, I only need to win one more cat each week to win.
The other owners were hit and miss with their choices. The team I'm most worried about drafted Steph, LeBron and Anthony Davis. But given that Steph has to share the ball with Durant, LeBron will likely sit out some games in the East, and Davis gets injured a lot....hopefully that makes his team less of a threat. And of course he spent $166 to get those 3 guys, so not a lot of depth beyond them on his team. The other team that's scary has Harden and Durant, so pretty much 2 of the 5 best players on one team. But again, $120 to get those 2. I'm hoping that between my top 5 guys I have more total talent, and have reduced the injury risk by getting more players, so hopefully I'll have a chance to win this year.
Durant will integrate seamlessly into the Warriors system. He's basically doing the exact same stuff Harrison Barnes was doing, but with better defense. He'll get more touches than Barnes, likely at Klay and Draymond's expense, but those guys will get better looks even if they get fewer looks. 
That should help him get minutes I'd expect.