2020-2021 NBA Season

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2020-2021 NBA Season

Post by C-Fan » 14 Dec 2020 08:58

Hard to believe it, but the new NBA season starts in just 8 days! That's crazy, since the season ended only 64 days ago. I'm pretty excited for the new season, understanding fully that it's going to be a weird one. I'm also playing Fantasy NBA with Asmus and Tu, so that always makes things more interesting. Quick post with some takes on the actual NBA season, and then later I'll make a post with some thoughts on my fantasy league.

:arrow: For some teams, this is the shortest offseason ever. The Lakers and Heat will have had 72 days between their seasons. For older players like LeBron, that's not enough time to rest and recover. I expect older players who played in the bubble just a couple months ago will get more rest games during the season.
:arrow: For other teams, this is the longest offseason ever. Teams that did not go to the Bubble, like the Pistons and the Knicks, are basically having a 9 month offseason. Will their players still be in shape? Do they need to completely rebuild team chemistry? Most of those teams were really bad to begin with (i.e. they weren't invited to the bubble) so maybe it doesn't even matter. Still, from a physical freshness standpoint you have to figure they have an advantage over the teams that had super short offseasons.
:arrow: The actual 2020-2021 season will have fewer games than normal. Instead of your normal 82 games, each team will play 72. This is a change people had been lobbying for even before the pandemic, to reduce the amount of injuries and overall have a better product on the floor. I believe this will be a good change.
:arrow: There will be fewer road trips, and more games played within each division. This is meant to reduce the chance of COVID exposures. So instead of each East team playing X% of their games out West like they would in a normal year, that percentage is lowered. Also the schedule has been changed to "lump" games in cities to reduce travel. A team that flies to LA to play the Lakers will likely also face the Clippers on the same trip, instead of making 2 separate trips to LA.
:arrow: Uncertainty around Harden and Giannis' futures. Both of these guys are top 5 players in the league, and there's a decent chance they are on the move. Harden has requested a trade out of Houston, and I expect he'll be traded sooner than later. Giannis is in a murkier situation. He hasn't requested out of Milwaukee, but he also hasn't signed his super max extension. The deadline for that is in a week. If he doesn't sign it he may still play out the rest of this season in Milwaukee, but he'd almost certainly end up somewhere else next year. Miami?
:arrow: This season isn't happening in a bubble. At least the regular season isn't. That introduces a ton of wildcards. If the season is already shortened to 72 games, any amount of time missed by star players matters that much more. Say Kawhi tests positive and misses a minimum of 10 days due just to quarantining. That could be 4-5 games, or 7% of your season right there. There's going to be a lot more variability just due to that. I also wonder how this will impact teams with thinner benches. This may end up being the season where having competent backups at every position really matters.

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Fantasy format

Post by C-Fan » 14 Dec 2020 14:55

As I mentioned in the last post, I'm doing fantasy NBA again this season with Asmus and Tu. I contemplated not doing it, because COVID is going to make it such an unpredictable mess. But then I decided, fuck it why not.

My next post I'll go over my draft, but before I do here are some observations about fantasy this season generally, and my league specifically:

:arrow: If a player has COVID, they are likely to miss 1-2 weeks worth of games. Every player in the league has an equal chance of getting sick, but the impact of a player being out obviously varies based on their statistical production. That incentivizes spreading out the risk on your fantasy team. I'll get into that more in a second.

:arrow: The traditional model for fantasy NBA is done with weekly head-to-head matchups. The idea is that each owner's team plays a similar number of games, meaning their players play a similar number of games, and therefore have equal opportunity to put up stats. In a season where games may be delayed or canceled, and more players may have to sit due to sickness and outbreaks, it would have made more sense to make the matchups span 2 weeks instead of one week. It's going to be inherently variable due to that alone.

:arrow: Looking at baseball and football, it's very possible an outbreak may affect an entire team and not just a single player. This may end up with weird outcomes where a single player on an opposing team may end up costing your team dearly. Say for example Alex Caruso (crappy Lakers player) gets a confirmed positive after he has scrimmaged with his team. Now say the Heat were scheduled to play the Lakers twice this week, and you have 2 Heat players. If those 2 games are postponed a week, your Heat players put up zero stats for this current week even though the only sick person was one bad player on a different team. This could get crazy fast.

:arrow: Given that outbreaks may affect entire teams, it's probably a bad idea to have more than 2 players from any single team on your fantasy squad. If all 5 of your best players are from different teams, that reduces the chance that a single outbreak will completely lose you a week.

:arrow: As I mentioned in the previous post, teams that played in the bubble and have older players may rest them more during this season. Guys like LeBron, Kawhi, etc.

:arrow: My league is an ESPN points league. This season, they made one significant change to the formulas they used. Without getting into a lot of detail, they basically now give extra value to every three pointer made. This boost in value is not reflected in the default draft rankings, as those come from category leagues and not points leagues. So in a nutshell, top fantasy players that hit a lot of 3 pointers (e.g. Curry, Lillard, Durant, Harden) are now worth even more. Conversely, superstar players that don't hit 3s (e.g. Westbrook, Simmons, Giannis, Drummond) are worth a bit less. I also used this as a determining factor when deciding between players at the end of the draft.

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My Fantasy Team

Post by C-Fan » 17 Dec 2020 09:34

Here's my Fantasy team, in order of most expensive to least. 

1. Harden ($64)- I wasn't planning on getting Harden, since the trade cloud uncertainty makes him a bit of a question mark.  But at $64 I had to pull the trigger.  This is a guy who has been #1 or #2 in points leagues for the past several years, and given the format change favoring 3 point shooters he gets another bump.  He has played with high usage guys like Westbrook and CP3 with minimal impact to his stats, he's an ironman that doesn't miss games, and I just don't see the Rockets sitting him all season.  Considering Giannis ($70), Jokic ($68), and Luka ($69) all went for significantly more, I bit the bullet.

2. Jimmy Butler ($35)- There were a few reasons not to take Jimmy.  His team was just in the finals and he's older, so there's a risk of rest days.  He's not the only superstar on his team.  His stats aren't insane even when he was in that role.  But he's durable, his team has incentive to compete every night, he always gives a shit, he plays wing positions my best player does not, and he was $35.  Siakam went for $40 in my league and I don't like him nearly as much.

3. Bam Adebayo ($30)- A bit risky having two of my 3 best players from the same team, as a COVID outbreak could really sink me.  But I'm hoping my overall team balance mitigates it.  Anyway, my thinking here is I get a solid center who is young, durable, and ideal for points leagues since he is like a mini-Jokic.

4. Khris Middleton ($20)- He may take a step back from last year since Jrue is on board.  Even if he does, he's still a 20/6/4 guy on great percentages with positional flexibility at 2 valuable positions (SG/SF).  $20 felt like a steal here.

5. Domantas Sabonis ($18)- He may be the best player on his team, he has no competition for minutes at his position, he's young, and he could be a starting fantasy center.  He's my backup, and he qualifies at PF as well.  

At this point in the draft I'd say I don't have the best duo of players, or the best trio in my league. I could argue I have the best top 4 (another team has Trae, Westbrook, Beal, Kyrie).  But I'd certainly argue I have the best top 5.  And I'd argue that from this point onward I have the strongest top 10 as well.  In past Fantasy seasons it may have been a safer bet to frontload your team with 2-3 really strong players, but this season with COVID uncertainty I'm hedging my bets and instead trying to build a team that's solid top to bottom.  

6. Gordon Hayward ($11)-  Was he injured a lot the past couple years?  Yes.  Was the contract he signed in the offseason way too big (4 years, $120M)? Absolutely. Did he average 17/7/4 last season as the fourth option on the Celtics?  Also yes.  And now he's the clear best player on a bad team that has every reason to play him a ton to show they didn't overpay for him.  If he puts up the same stats as last season I'll be surprised, but he'll still have been worth $11.  Anything above that will be a steal.

7. Michael Porter Junior ($8)- This is my first pick that actually feels like a risk at this pricetag.  But there is something to be said for picking players that are fun to own, and MPJ fits the bill.  With Jerami Grant gone from the Nuggets, MPJ basically walks into the starting SF role and could easily give me something like 18/6.  He could also be traded somewhere where he has a bigger role.  He could also be wildly inconsistent and get injured.  But for $8 at the end of the draft when I had money leftover, I had to roll the dice.

8. Clint Capela ($4)- Not a sexy name, but kind of insane he was available this cheap.  Over the past 2 seasons he basically averaged a 15/13.  Last year he went for $28 in the same league.  Assuming he has a bad year and gives me a 12/12 every night that's still insane value for $4.  

9. Al Horford ($4)- Another undervalued asset in my opinion.  Yeah, he had a bad year with the Sixers when they tried to make him play at the same time as Embiid and Simmons with no shooters.  He was a bad fit, not a bad player.  Now he's the starting center in OKC with no competition for minutes and no fit problems.  I think he'll have a nice bounceback year, and $4 will be a steal.  I would be concerned that he's my 4th center, but both him and Sabonis can also be used at PF so it's not really a logjam.

10. Serge Ibaka ($2)- Another name I was surprised was still available at such a low price.  The past 2 seasons he's averaged 15/8, and I anticipate he'll be around the same this year.  At this point I'm definitely a bit light at the guard position and a bit heavy on bigs, but point guards are easy to find towards the end of a draft.  On that note...

11. LaMelo Ball ($2)- As the #3 pick in the draft, playing on a bad team with no established point guards, my hope is they play him a ton of minutes and let him rack up stats through the losses.  I think he'll put up some really weird stat lines, with low point totals but high assists and rebounds (for a guard).  He could also get benched a lot and I fully expect he'll be wildly inconsistent.  But hopefully fun too, and for $2 at the end of my draft who am I to complain.

12. Coby White ($1)- Is he a good player? No.  Is he on a good team?  Hell no.  Is he a bit of an inefficient chucker?  Yep.  He's also the starting point guard on a team that should run a lot, and hopefully give me a bunch of empty calorie stat lines.

13. Jaren Jackson Jr. ($1)- The only reason he was available is because he is currently injured.  And yeah, its not ideal to pick up an injured player on your roster from the jump.  But if he does come back in January and puts up the exact same stats as the past two years (basically 17/5 with a block and a steal and 2 threes a game) then I'd be getting a mid-round player for a dollar.  I know those are some big ifs, but I think my roster is good enough to carry an injured player for a few weeks, and the payoff could be huge if it works out.

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Re: Fantasy format

Post by C-Fan » 27 Dec 2020 23:15

C-Fan wrote:
14 Dec 2020 14:55
COVID is going to make it such an unpredictable mess.

:arrow: The traditional model for fantasy NBA is done with weekly head-to-head matchups. The idea is that each owner's team plays a similar number of games, meaning their players play a similar number of games, and therefore have equal opportunity to put up stats. In a season where games may be delayed or canceled, and more players may have to sit due to sickness and outbreaks, it would have made more sense to make the matchups span 2 weeks instead of one week. It's going to be inherently variable due to that alone.
...and yet I still didn't expect this to literally happen on the second night of games. Rockets -Thunder got postponed due to the Rockets having an outbreak. And of course it cost me the first week matchup in my league. Because of fucking course it did. Good reminder that this season is even more pointless due to the wildcard of covid.

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My Fantasy Team 1 week in

Post by C-Fan » 29 Dec 2020 09:20

NBA season has been overall fun so far. The biggest highlight for me has been seeing Durant back and looking as good as he did before his injury 1.5 years ago. I've only watched a couple games this year, but I've been keeping up with the video recaps and highlights.

A few high profile injuries have happened, which have been a bummer. KAT has some wrist issue, but sounds like it doesn't need surgery. Still I'm glad I didn't take him in Fantasy, because I could see that being a lingering problem all season. Ja Morant had a nasty ankle turn last night and looks to miss some time. He's super young, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him back this season and fully recovered. That said I expect Memphis will be very cautious bringing him back, since he is the franchise cornerstone. Spencer Dinwiddie tore his ACL and is out for the season. He's a bit of a fringe guy fantasy wise, but I can see him being very important in the playoffs for real basketball. On that note, it really looks like the Nets are for real. I expect the East finals will be them against Celtics/Sixers/Bucks.

Checking in on my fantasy team, a week in:
C-Fan wrote:
17 Dec 2020 09:34
1. Harden ($64)- This is a guy who has been #1 or #2 in points leagues for the past several years, ... and I just don't see the Rockets sitting him all season. 
He still hasn't been traded, and he missed a game because of the Rockets COVID outbreak. But in the 2 games he's played he's been far and away my best player. Averaging 39 points, 5 rebounds, and 12 assists. He looks healthy and I'm feeling good about him as my team cornerstone.
C-Fan wrote:
17 Dec 2020 09:34
2. Jimmy Butler ($35)
3. Bam Adebayo ($30)
My Heat guys have been solid not spectacular. Jimmy got a bit of an injury, but overall I feel good about these guys as a foundation of my team.
C-Fan wrote:
17 Dec 2020 09:34
4. Khris Middleton ($20)- he's still a 20/6/4 guy on great percentages with positional flexibility at 2 valuable positions (SG/SF).  $20 felt like a steal here.
3 games in, he's giving me 27/7/6. I expect he'll cool off some, but yeah he's worked out great for $20.
C-Fan wrote:
17 Dec 2020 09:34
5. Domantas Sabonis ($18)- He may be the best player on his team, he has no competition for minutes at his position, he's young, and he could be a starting fantasy center. 
3 games in, he's at 24/11/7. I drafted him as my backup to Bam, but so far he's been better.  

C-Fan wrote:
17 Dec 2020 09:34
6. Gordon Hayward ($11)-  he's the clear best player on a bad team that has every reason to play him a ton to show they didn't overpay for him.
So far so good. 23/5/7.
C-Fan wrote:
17 Dec 2020 09:34
7. Michael Porter Junior , MPJ basically walks into the starting SF role and could easily give me something like 18/6. 
Bit of a slow start, but I also expected some inconsistency. He's at 16/6 but he's getting consistent minutes. Hasn't been a disappointment but hasn't blown me away either.

C-Fan wrote:
17 Dec 2020 09:34
8. Clint Capela ($4)-   Assuming he has a bad year and gives me a 12/12 every night that's still insane value for $4.  
He missed a couple games, and now he's back but on a 20 minutes a game limit. Despite that, I still feel great I got him for $4. If he stays healthy and gets to around 25-27 minutes a game, I'll feel great about this pick.

C-Fan wrote:
17 Dec 2020 09:34
9. Al Horford ($4)- Another undervalued asset ... he's the starting center in OKC with no competition for minutes and no fit problems. 
He's only played 2 games but the minutes (avg 29) are there. Still feels like a safe pick.
C-Fan wrote:
17 Dec 2020 09:34
10. Serge Ibaka ($2)-   The past 2 seasons he's averaged 15/8, and I anticipate he'll be around the same this year. 
After 3 games, he's at 14/6 with a block. I'm still hoping for better by the end of the season, but for $2 that's not bad at all.
C-Fan wrote:
17 Dec 2020 09:34
11. LaMelo Ball ($2)- my hope is they play him a ton of minutes and let him rack up stats through the losses. 
My first big miss on the team, but for $2 not a costly error. He's playing about how I expected, but his coach isn't playing him the minutes I hoped. He's only getting 15-20 minutes a night, so if that continues I may have to dump him. Hopefully he starts getting 20+ minutes a night, because I still think the potential is there.
C-Fan wrote:
17 Dec 2020 09:34
12. Coby White ($1)hopefully give me a bunch of empty calorie stat lines.
Cold start on the season, but he's streaky. Not giving up on him yet, but definitely monitoring to see if they do anything with his playing time.
C-Fan wrote:
17 Dec 2020 09:34
13. Jaren Jackson Jr. ($1)- The only reason he was available is because he is currently injured. 
I loved this gamble on draft night, but with the injuries to Capela and Butler, missing that game for Harden and Horford, and slow starts for Coby/Porter/Lamelo I couldn't justify the roster deadweight. I hated to do it, but last night I dropped him for Kyle Anderson. He's not a sexy name, but he's averaging 18/10 so far and is likely to get a ton of minutes now that Ja and JJJ are out with injury.

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D'Angelo?!?

Post by C-Fan » 04 Jan 2021 13:10

On draft night Tu Vu paid $30 for D'Angelo Russell. It seemed high to me but not crazy. DAR had a rough start to the year, but I was still shocked to see Tu dropped him to the waiver! I swooped in and got him for nothing. The way I see it, there's no way he stays this bad all year, and even if he does he's better than the scrap heap players I was cycling through at the bottom of my team. Also as a nice bonus, DAR qualifies at both guard positions so he's flexible.

My biggest disappointment on my team so far is Jimmy Butler, who has missed a few games to injury and had one lackluster game. I expect he'll round back into form soon.

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Made it to the Finals!

Post by C-Fan » 03 May 2021 08:33

I made it to the Finals of my NBA Fantasy League!

Considering my best player (Harden) went down for the season about a month ago, I'm pretty happy I made it. Here's the list of players I lost this season due to injury, that I had to drop and get 0 compensation for:

:arrow: Harden
:arrow: Hayward
:arrow: LaMelo (he came back this week, but I had to cut him since he missed half the season)
:arrow: John Wall

Sabonis also missed 6 games in a row during the most critical stretch of the first round of the playoffs, which was pretty brutalizing. I actually dropped him for a bit since it wasn't clear when he was coming back, and I felt I couldn't make finals if I was rostering dead weight. Thankfully I was able to reacquire him before anybody sniped him off the waiver.

I also had long stretches without Butler or MPJ, since they were in COVID protocols for long stretches of the season.

Anyway, what matters is that I'm in Finals now with a decent shot to win. The season ends in 2 weeks, so hopefully I avoid more bad injury luck, and I can churn the waiver wires skillfully to ensure a win for the season.

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End is in sight! Gotta hold that lead!

Post by C-Fan » 10 May 2021 05:54

C-Fan wrote:
03 May 2021 08:33
I made it to the Finals of my NBA Fantasy League! he season ends in 2 weeks, so hopefully I avoid more bad injury luck, and I can churn the waiver wires skillfully to ensure a win for the season.
Less than a week left! I'm holding a slim lead, so the next few days will be key in terms of monitoring injuries, games played, and the waiver wire. If I can pull out the win, I think I may just retire from Fantasy so I can end on a high note.

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I won!

Post by C-Fan » 17 May 2021 17:36

I won my NBA Fantasy League! I think I'll probably retire from Fantasy now. I've won 4 or 5 times now, so don't feel like there's much left to prove. I also don't have as much time for this kind of thing, mostly due to my YT gaming channel.

Play-in tournament starts in the next couple days and should be done by the weekend. Basically, the teams that finished between 7 and 10 are battling it out to see who gets the 7th and 8th seeds in the playoffs. Kinda exciting.

The favorites in the East for the playoffs are the Sixers and Nets. I think if the Nets are healthy, they can make and win the Finals. Out West the LA teams and Denver are at the top. Suns just don't feel real...Jazz could make the Finals if Donovan gets healthy in time.

Hopefully I can watch a few playoff games.

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Re: 2020-2021 NBA Season

Post by boyle » 27 May 2021 01:11

Do you think that's good - that playoff to the playoff? I guess it's good for teams 9 and 10. They've been talking about bringing that in for the NRL, would probably be handy for my team this year come to think of it... I don't the idea has been popular though.

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Play-in to Playoffs

Post by C-Fan » 29 May 2021 11:37

boyle wrote:
27 May 2021 01:11
Do you think that's good - that playoff to the playoff? I guess it's good for teams 9 and 10.
I think it's been awesome. There are 30 teams in the NBA, and most years only 4-5 of those teams have a real shot to win the championship. There are probably 8 more that are locks for the playoffs, and those teams all have incentive to make the playoffs since they get extra money for it. The problem historically have been the bottom 10 teams, which by mid season KNOW they won't make the playoffs, so they are then incentivized to tank the rest of the season. In most past years, there are like 6 teams in each conference that know they will make the playoffs, and maybe 4 more that are trying to get in. But now that you have this play-in tournament, it makes several more teams feel like they have a chance to make it. So instead of having 10 teams give up by mid season, you now only have like 4. The end of the regular season also becomes more exciting, as you have several teams trying to make it into the 9 and 10 spots, and several other teams trying extra hard to get the 6th seed (since they avoid the play in tournament). Basically, it incentivizes at least 5 teams in each conference to try much much harder at the end of the season. For that reason alone it is really great from a competition and entertainment standpoint.

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Re: 2020-2021 NBA Season

Post by boyle » 01 Jun 2021 03:09

yeah, that's the big difference, in the NRL there are 16 teams into a top 8, so in general the teams 7-8 are not particularly good as it is. With a bigger range that sounds really good.

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