Nuclear North Korea

FlexThis · Post by **FlexThis** » 10 Oct 2006 16:13

I can't believe this isn't already a topic. I was waiting for Dan Feary or Jeremy O to take this on so I wouldn't have to, but here goes.

N. Korea tested a NUKE or rather failed a test of a nuke, or made it look like they tested a nuke, or .... blah blah blah.

What does this really mean to people? What if any consequences should they face? Do sanctions even seem feasible given their resistance to them? Should the US even be considered the Big man in this discussion when China has the power to squash the US and N. Korea? What are your opinions?

~peace
Damon

HighDemonslayer · Post by **HighDemonslayer** » 10 Oct 2006 22:01

I was going to title the thread: "The Bomb", because I was going to start one after reading so many stories, and they're taking bout it on Coast To Coast AM right now.

HighDemonslayer · Post by **HighDemonslayer** » 10 Oct 2006 22:41

Wow, there is so much to consider, and so many side effects, if that was a real nuke.

Here's a few opinions, from your favorate jerk:

1. Bush looks weak, N. Korea and Iran should be emboldened.

2. China is feigning anger.
N. Korea is their useful proxy.
A nuclear exchange resulting in the U.S. mainland being hit by a nuke, and the nuclear annihilation of N. Korea would be a win-win for China, regardless of the collaterial human casualties from fallout in China(acceptable, expendable losses).

This assumes that President Bush will retaliate with nukes, if the U.S. is hit. There ,of course, is the possibility that Bush will waffle, and do nothing before consulting the United Nations for a period of 5 years.

3. The U.S. doesn't act like the big man anymore. Bush looks and talks weak, we can't even win a war with Iraq and Afghanistan.

4. N.Korea doesn't need a long range ballistic missile. It would be cheaper and easier to stick a nuke in a ship, and sail into the port at Seattle, or Los Angeles....... BOOM!

5. Ship the bomb over to Mexico, then drive it by truck, up to the border, over the border, and into Dallas, or San Diego.....BOOM!!!

6. If the U.S. can be hit by a nuke, and not know who did it. Then our leadership will waffle and do nothing, for a long time.

8. In any of the above scenarios, China emerges as the winner, the new superpower. The U.S. world status, and economy, are smashed forever.

More later...no doubt.

-n

RunAmuk · Post by **RunAmuk** » 10 Oct 2006 23:18

i heard it was a sucsessful test.
am i wrong?
could that sort of thing be felt on a rictor scale or something?

Slowsis · Post by **Slowsis** » 11 Oct 2006 07:51

To take a quote from the N.Korean propaganda machine.....

"To avoid and punish American Imperialism"

However insane and insensitive Kim-Jong Il happens to be, he is also a shrewd tactician, and his tactics are either going to be successful in aquiring fair regional treatment for N.Korea or a brutal stalemate in which the entire Korean penninsula will be driven even farther into poverty.

One more important thing to remember is that Kim-Jong would never risk a nuclear confrontation with the US. His regime is not based on religion or idealism, its a personality cult in which Kim-Jong is the "dear leader". Kim-jong is a self-centerd egomaniac, and would not risk his life or comfort for anything. Its most likely that this nuclear test is simply his way of safeguarding N.Korea from the Americans, so he doesn't end up looking like Saddam.

FlexThis · Post by **FlexThis** » 11 Oct 2006 13:36

I have heard differing opinions ranging from a TNT blast of .5 kilotons to complete success claimed by N. Korea. It is still speculation at this point.

To further speculate the US claims a nuke contains a 4 kiloton blast, or at least theirs do. The North produced a 1/2 kiloton explosion. This is based on the seismic readings in the area. I have seen 2 differing figures, 3.25 and 4.5.

We have already tried sanctions and such with N. Korea including Nuke monitoring etc... They kicked the monitors out and did what they wanted and have ever since. Will any efforts by the UN even be worth the effort?

If the UN chokes out N. Korea are they forcing their hands on the red button to launch an attack at the US?

I can see China's interests in wanting to see the US dissappear, but in all honesty, the US owes China way too much money for China to just wash their hands of them.

Do you think that any military offensive against N. Korea would even succeed? IMO the US military would indeed need to bomb away. Hand to hand, N. Korea is a deadly fighting regime. Technically speaking the US has not unleashed its full might, especially in Iraq were terrorists hide amongst civilians.

Precision strikes aside, if the US could freely bomb away - there would be no livable area left separating S. Korea and China. N. Korea would be a page in history.

Unfotrunately that's not even realistic given all the politics involved in war.

Any more thoughts or opinions?

~peace
Damon

BainbridgeShred · Post by **BainbridgeShred** » 11 Oct 2006 16:04

While war with China is inevitable, anyone who thinks it will come in the next 5-10 years is foolish. Chinese military knows right now that the US would kick their ass in any sort of military struggle. I would like to see China try to sucsesfully take Taiwan. Wouldn't happen.

With that said, their will be a war with China in the next 15-20 years.

As far as nukes, they're pretty obsolete if both countries in the mix up have them. N Korea isn't going to nuke the US, the US isn't going to nuke N Korea now. I feel pretty safe.

What scares me is al Qaeda with a nuke.

HighDemonslayer · Post by **HighDemonslayer** » 12 Oct 2006 09:17

Good points, but I think war probably comes sooner than we think. And our debt and trade deficits to China mean they have the options, not us.

Ill detail those opinions later when I have more time.

-n

Senor Grommet · Post by **Senor Grommet** » 12 Oct 2006 14:24

the idea of a nuclear stand-down between 2 countries with nuclear weapons is only the most feasible option when both contries' leaders are like-minded. If one leader values destroying the other's way of life more than preserving the lives of his own people, then the US is screwed. We (our leaders), hopefully do not think that way.

Slowsis · Post by **Slowsis** » 12 Oct 2006 15:07

Senor Grommet wrote: If one leader values destroying the other's way of life more than preserving the lives of his own people,

Thats the thing about an egomaniac. Kim-Jong Il is not concerned with preserving the life of his citizens, but is VERY concerned with preserving his own life. He wouldn't risk a nuclear attack as it might end in his demise.

Scott · Post by **Scott** » 12 Oct 2006 20:23

A nuclear exchange resulting in the U.S. mainland being hit by a nuke, and the nuclear annihilation of N. Korea would be a win-win for China, regardless of the collaterial human casualties from fallout in China(acceptable, expendable losses).

I can see China's interests in wanting to see the US dissappear

war with China is inevitable

Can anyone explain to me the reasoning behind these comments?

I don't see why there would be any reason for China and the US to go to war with each other or with North Korea it would be much more beneficial for both China and the US if North Korea were a successful trading partner rather than a nuclear wasteland.

HighDemonslayer · Post by **HighDemonslayer** » 13 Oct 2006 00:24

No, you should explain your asinine reasoning behind that stupid comment about N. Korea being a successful trading partner as the greatest outcome for ALL.

Any nuke hitting the U.S. , ends our dominance, and crashes our dollar.
$10,000 for a loaf of bread?

North Koreas annihilation after a nuke exchange with the U.S. is like Russia and China getting a free nuke strike, while remaining untouched.

. Kim-Jong Il can survive a nuke attack with the bunkers he has surely built.

Think of the parade he would receive in Beijing, if he did hit the U.S. with a nuke.

The destruction of North korea and all it's peoples would be an acceptable price to pay.

China has sucked away most of our manufacturing capacity, and owns most of our debt.
Soon they wont need us, China and India have huge populations that are on course to make huge advances in their standards of living , and consumption of goods.

The U.S. dollar could be destoyed overnight, with one hit.

China could make it happen anytime. They do bide their time though.
Better to move all the chess pieces into position, before you check mate your opponent.

And you know Western leadership is naive, incompetent, and corrupt enough to let it happen.

China is smart, they wrote the book on how you set up the conditions to fuck your enemy.

Our leaders were to busy doing cocaine, to read the book.

-n

BainbridgeShred · Post by **BainbridgeShred** » 13 Oct 2006 15:33

Dude, sometimes it seems like you live in a make believe world HDS. Some kind of fantasy-comic book thing. Parades in Bejing for Kim il Jong for nuking the US? Yeah right. Besides, he would never nuke the US just for the sake of nuking it, and he would certianly never nuke America for the sole purpose of China's advancement. China and N Korea are allies, yes, but their are no friendly relations between the two countries. These socieites have hated eachother for a long time.

China, also, could not make anything happen anytime. Any type of nuclear attack against the US would be met with an almost instant counter attack, decimating the entire China. Like I said earlier, two countries with large amounts of nukes will not engage in nuclear warfare with eachother.

Scott · Post by **Scott** » 13 Oct 2006 15:49

you should explain your asinine reasoning behind that stupid comment about N. Korea being a successful trading partner as the greatest outcome for ALL

Its the same reason why countries negotiate free trade agreements, because its actually beneficial for a country to increase its trade.

The economics are a bit complicated but essentially it is about efficient use of capital and obtaining goods at the cheapest price possible (no matter if they are produced by you or your neighbour).

China and India have huge populations that are on course to make huge advances in their standards of living , and consumption of goods.

Actually they have been for the past 20 years, this is not a problem for the US. As China and India increase their standard of living they also increase their demand for foreign goods which is a good thing for countries like the US and Europe.

The problem for the US is that because China has held the value of its currency down, it has had an unfair advantage in the labour market. This is a small price to pay for the benefits it has given to China in terms of economic growth. Of course its not sustainable, China is aware of this and is currently in the process of making changes by allowing its citizens to make foreign investments and gradually revalueing the currency.

There would also be no benefit to China in having a weak US since the US is the main destination for its goods.

BainbridgeShred · Post by **BainbridgeShred** » 13 Oct 2006 15:49

Can anyone explain to me the reasoning behind these comments?

I can explain my comment, which was that war with China is inevitable. I say this because you can look back in history and see that when their is dominant and emerging culture (Usually extensively immersed in trade), that the two countries almost always to fight a war for power. This threat is increased when the two countries have had prior conflcits, and opposing styles of leadership and outlook.

HighDemonslayer · Post by **HighDemonslayer** » 18 Oct 2006 18:15

A make believe world, where N. Koreas tin-pot dictator is hailed as a hero for destroying U.S. dominance?

Not so far fetched.... of course China would not announce the celebration the day after a nuke attack on the U.S.

"Any type of nuclear attack against the US would be met with an almost instant counter attack, decimating the entire China."

Really? Any type? if Korea launched a nuke that perhaps went astray and hit Idaho, would that result in a complete MAD destruction of China and USA?

With weakling Bush as President, any nuke response should be a low probability.

Just because a theoretical 500,000 Americans are wiped out by a nuke, should not condemn all of us to MAD destruction, should it?

-------------------------------------

Maybe I was a bit rough on Scott, but I don't think N. Korea has anything to trade with the U.S.

They are a drain, the security concerns, and the endless millions in bribes negotiated by Clinton will make North Korea a net loss for the U.S.A.

Any economic benefit from N. korea trade , if exists, will come at the expense of the American worker.

-------------------

War with China will happen. They said it was going to happen. They have threatened our West coast with nuclear attack before.

They move their pieces into position, perhaps to win without ever firing a shot.

Greedy American politicians and businessmen are oh so eager to transfer all technology, and all manufacturing capability over to them.

With perhaps a trillion dollars in reserve in U.S. dollars, they can control the value of either currency.

Our government must sell many millions or billions in debt every month, to foreign powers.

Don't think that comes without a price.

They also spend many billions on developing secret weapons to render the nuke obselete, and other scientific weapons. that would force the unconditional surrender of the Western powers.

Pursuit of these weapons is common knowledge in the Chinese ,and the world press, and has been for several decades. The U.S. press says, nothing, as you would expect.

Bah

Maybe the nuke tests were staged......it was just a dirty bomb that they attempted to look like a nuke.

And Russia stands to gain from the perception of a Korean nuke, and thus said it was a nuke.

Either way, me and Bainbridge's paranoia of Chinese expansion should bring us together.

-n

BainbridgeShred · Post by **BainbridgeShred** » 18 Oct 2006 18:35

Really? Any type? if Korea launched a nuke that perhaps went astray and hit Idaho, would that result in a complete MAD destruction of China and USA?

I was discussing China specifically, not North Korea, in response to your comment that China could "make anything happen anytime". The whole idea is that North Korea will not nuke America for China's gain and N Korea's loss, and that China would not nuke America for obvious reasons.

HighDemonslayer · Post by **HighDemonslayer** » 18 Oct 2006 19:02

Ok......., I thought you might have meant that a "small" nuke attack from Korea would mean MutualAssuredDestruction for China and USA.

-n

HighDemonslayer · Post by **HighDemonslayer** » 18 Oct 2006 19:08

Oh , and the " make anything happen anytime" part.......

I was refering to their power over the U.S. dollar, which they could influence however they want, whenever they want.

I didnt mean get away with an obvious Chinese nuke strike on the U.S.

-n