Canadian Dollar reaches parity with US Dollar
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max
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Canadian Dollar reaches parity with US Dollar
Maxime Boucoiran
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Frank_Sinatra
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Awesome! Ohhh Canada, our home and native land, true pa .... ah nevermind
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"It was clean enough to be thin..." - Andrew W.
I was reading just the other day that some famous scientists (I really wish I could remember who) predicted that the US would start losing it's global dominance around 2008.
I don't know enough about the economy to know if thing are heading that way, but an interesting prediction.
All I know is that it's cheaper for me to by USB Nerf Rocket Launchers from www.thinkgeek.com; and that's a good thing
I don't know enough about the economy to know if thing are heading that way, but an interesting prediction.
All I know is that it's cheaper for me to by USB Nerf Rocket Launchers from www.thinkgeek.com; and that's a good thing
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HighDemonslayer
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The Canadian dollar exchange rate should be even higher.
The U.S. dollar is in the final stages of it's "death-cycle", so to speak.
All fiat currencies die eventually, after they have been de-based to such an extent.
Not backed by gold, or silver. The U.S. dollar is backed only by the govt promise that it has worth. When that dollar will no longer buy oil, that promise hangs buy a thread.
I heard the Fed had to dump 30 billion (freshly minted, no doubt) into the stock market today, to stave off a plunge.
also check this:
I AM A LONG URL
Fears of dollar collapse as Saudis take fright
London Telegraph | September 20, 2007
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Saudi Arabia has refused to cut interest rates in lockstep with the US Federal Reserve for the first time, signalling that the oil-rich Gulf kingdom is preparing to break the dollar currency peg in a move that risks setting off a stampede out of the dollar across the Middle East.
"This is a very dangerous situation for the dollar," said Hans Redeker, currency chief at BNP Paribas.
"Saudi Arabia has $800bn (£400bn) in their future generation fund, and the entire region has $3,500bn under management. They face an inflationary threat and do not want to import an interest rate policy set for the recessionary conditions in the United States," he said.
The Saudi central bank said today that it would take "appropriate measures" to halt huge capital inflows into the country, but analysts say this policy is unsustainable and will inevitably lead to the collapse of the dollar peg.
As a close ally of the US, Riyadh has so far tried to stick to the peg, but the link is now destabilising its own economy.
The Fed's dramatic half point cut to 4.75pc yesterday has already caused a plunge in the world dollar index to a fifteen year low, touching with weakest level ever against the mighty euro at just under $1.40.
There is now a growing danger that global investors will start to shun the US bond markets. The latest US government data on foreign holdings released this week show a collapse in purchases of US bonds from $97bn to just $19bn in July, with outright net sales of US Treasuries.
The danger is that this could now accelerate as the yield gap between the United States and the rest of the world narrows rapidly, leaving America starved of foreign capital flows needed to cover its current account deficit - expected to reach $850bn this year, or 6.5pc of GDP.
Mr Redeker said foreign investors have been gradually pulling out of the long-term US debt markets, leaving the dollar dependent on short-term funding. Foreigners have funded 25pc to 30pc of America's credit and short-term paper markets over the last two years.
"They were willing to provide the money when rates were paying nicely, but why bear the risk in these dramatically changed circumstances? We think that a fall in dollar to $1.50 against the euro is not out of the question at all by the first quarter of 2008," he said.
"This is nothing like the situation in 1998 when the crisis was in Asia, but the US was booming. This time the US itself is the problem," he said.
Mr Redeker said the biggest danger for the dollar is that falling US rates will at some point trigger a reversal yen "carry trade", causing massive flows from the US back to Japan.
Jim Rogers, the commodity king and former partner of George Soros, said the Federal Reserve was playing with fire by cutting rates so aggressively at a time when the dollar was already under pressure.
The risk is that flight from US bonds could push up the long-term yields that form the base price of credit for most mortgages, the driving the property market into even deeper crisis.
"If Ben Bernanke starts running those printing presses even faster than he's already doing, we are going to have a serious recession. The dollar's going to collapse, the bond market's going to collapse. There's going to be a lot of problems," he said.
The Federal Reserve, however, clearly calculates the risk of a sudden downturn is now so great that the it outweighs dangers of a dollar slide.
Former Fed chief Alan Greenspan said this week that house prices may fall by "double digits" as the subprime crisis bites harder, prompting households to cut back sharply on spending.
For Saudi Arabia, the dollar peg has clearly become a liability. Inflation has risen to 4pc and the M3 broad money supply is surging at 22pc.
The pressures are even worse in other parts of the Gulf. The United Arab Emirates now faces inflation of 9.3pc, a 20-year high. In Qatar it has reached 13pc.
Kuwait became the first of the oil sheikhdoms to break its dollar peg in May, a move that has begun to rein in rampant money supply growth.
------------
-hds
The U.S. dollar is in the final stages of it's "death-cycle", so to speak.
All fiat currencies die eventually, after they have been de-based to such an extent.
Not backed by gold, or silver. The U.S. dollar is backed only by the govt promise that it has worth. When that dollar will no longer buy oil, that promise hangs buy a thread.
I heard the Fed had to dump 30 billion (freshly minted, no doubt) into the stock market today, to stave off a plunge.
also check this:
I AM A LONG URL
Fears of dollar collapse as Saudis take fright
London Telegraph | September 20, 2007
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Saudi Arabia has refused to cut interest rates in lockstep with the US Federal Reserve for the first time, signalling that the oil-rich Gulf kingdom is preparing to break the dollar currency peg in a move that risks setting off a stampede out of the dollar across the Middle East.
"This is a very dangerous situation for the dollar," said Hans Redeker, currency chief at BNP Paribas.
"Saudi Arabia has $800bn (£400bn) in their future generation fund, and the entire region has $3,500bn under management. They face an inflationary threat and do not want to import an interest rate policy set for the recessionary conditions in the United States," he said.
The Saudi central bank said today that it would take "appropriate measures" to halt huge capital inflows into the country, but analysts say this policy is unsustainable and will inevitably lead to the collapse of the dollar peg.
As a close ally of the US, Riyadh has so far tried to stick to the peg, but the link is now destabilising its own economy.
The Fed's dramatic half point cut to 4.75pc yesterday has already caused a plunge in the world dollar index to a fifteen year low, touching with weakest level ever against the mighty euro at just under $1.40.
There is now a growing danger that global investors will start to shun the US bond markets. The latest US government data on foreign holdings released this week show a collapse in purchases of US bonds from $97bn to just $19bn in July, with outright net sales of US Treasuries.
The danger is that this could now accelerate as the yield gap between the United States and the rest of the world narrows rapidly, leaving America starved of foreign capital flows needed to cover its current account deficit - expected to reach $850bn this year, or 6.5pc of GDP.
Mr Redeker said foreign investors have been gradually pulling out of the long-term US debt markets, leaving the dollar dependent on short-term funding. Foreigners have funded 25pc to 30pc of America's credit and short-term paper markets over the last two years.
"They were willing to provide the money when rates were paying nicely, but why bear the risk in these dramatically changed circumstances? We think that a fall in dollar to $1.50 against the euro is not out of the question at all by the first quarter of 2008," he said.
"This is nothing like the situation in 1998 when the crisis was in Asia, but the US was booming. This time the US itself is the problem," he said.
Mr Redeker said the biggest danger for the dollar is that falling US rates will at some point trigger a reversal yen "carry trade", causing massive flows from the US back to Japan.
Jim Rogers, the commodity king and former partner of George Soros, said the Federal Reserve was playing with fire by cutting rates so aggressively at a time when the dollar was already under pressure.
The risk is that flight from US bonds could push up the long-term yields that form the base price of credit for most mortgages, the driving the property market into even deeper crisis.
"If Ben Bernanke starts running those printing presses even faster than he's already doing, we are going to have a serious recession. The dollar's going to collapse, the bond market's going to collapse. There's going to be a lot of problems," he said.
The Federal Reserve, however, clearly calculates the risk of a sudden downturn is now so great that the it outweighs dangers of a dollar slide.
Former Fed chief Alan Greenspan said this week that house prices may fall by "double digits" as the subprime crisis bites harder, prompting households to cut back sharply on spending.
For Saudi Arabia, the dollar peg has clearly become a liability. Inflation has risen to 4pc and the M3 broad money supply is surging at 22pc.
The pressures are even worse in other parts of the Gulf. The United Arab Emirates now faces inflation of 9.3pc, a 20-year high. In Qatar it has reached 13pc.
Kuwait became the first of the oil sheikhdoms to break its dollar peg in May, a move that has begun to rein in rampant money supply growth.
------------
-hds
Is Wayne Brady gonna have to choke a bitch?
-----------------------------------
-nathan
-----------------------------------
-nathan
Jeremy wrote:
With so many people making various predictions statistically someone is bound to get it right, no matter what happens. It shouldn't come as any surprise when someone has predicted a certain outcome. If they can repeatedly do it over a number of years then you may want to pay attention.
HDS wrote:
A wise investor (Warren Buffett) once said something along the lines of ....'forecasts tell you a lot about the forecaster but very little about the future'...I was reading just the other day that some famous scientists (I really wish I could remember who) predicted that the US would start losing it's global dominance around 2008.
With so many people making various predictions statistically someone is bound to get it right, no matter what happens. It shouldn't come as any surprise when someone has predicted a certain outcome. If they can repeatedly do it over a number of years then you may want to pay attention.
HDS wrote:
That seems unusuall since the Fed cut rates and the typical reaction is for the share market to go up. I could understand if they had pumped $30b into the cash market but share market seems odd.I heard the Fed had to dump 30 billion (freshly minted, no doubt) into the stock market today, to stave off a plunge.
Scott Kirchner
http://www.ausfootbag.org
http://www.ausfootbag.org
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Blue_turnip
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CautionFragile
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Sure, but when somebody like Ray Kurzweil makes predictions about the fall of the Soviet Union, the progress of military technology, the progress of personal technology, the rise of the internet etc. and then turns out to be right on all his predictions, it seems wise to see what else he predicted; because it could be chance, or he could actually be good at working out what the world will be like in the future.Scott wrote:Jeremy wrote:A wise investor (Warren Buffett) once said something along the lines of ....'forecasts tell you a lot about the forecaster but very little about the future'...I was reading just the other day that some famous scientists (I really wish I could remember who) predicted that the US would start losing it's global dominance around 2008.
With so many people making various predictions statistically someone is bound to get it right, no matter what happens. It shouldn't come as any surprise when someone has predicted a certain outcome. If they can repeatedly do it over a number of years then you may want to pay attention.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_kurzwe ... redictions
Thanks for the link, that was an interesting read.
The last sentence of my post did cover the scenario of someone who can repeatedly make accurate predictions. I merely wanted to point out that a successful prediction on it's own doesn't say much at all.
To make an accurate judgement of someone's ability I would at least want to know the total number of predictions made and the percentage that were successful.
I would also consider other factors such as the self-fulfilling nature of the predictions. For instance if enough people predict that the stockmarket will rise then they will bring about that result by the influence of their decisions on the market.
Jeremy wrote:
Also there were a number of people who had predicted the fall of the Soviet Union and increased use of technology (the first Terminator movie was released in 1984).
Some of his predicitons could also be considered self fulfilling since they related to technology he was personally responsible for developing.
I don't mean to discredit Kurzweil, i'm sure his books would be a good read and it would be well worth considering his opinions. I only want to point out that any predicitons should be viewed with caution and to use a common financial disclaimer "past performance is no guarantee of future return".
The last sentence of my post did cover the scenario of someone who can repeatedly make accurate predictions. I merely wanted to point out that a successful prediction on it's own doesn't say much at all.
To make an accurate judgement of someone's ability I would at least want to know the total number of predictions made and the percentage that were successful.
I would also consider other factors such as the self-fulfilling nature of the predictions. For instance if enough people predict that the stockmarket will rise then they will bring about that result by the influence of their decisions on the market.
Jeremy wrote:
It's not really correct to say he 'turns out to be right on all his predicitons' given that he also made a number of predictions that didn't eventuate.when somebody like Ray Kurzweil makes predictions about the fall of the Soviet Union, the progress of military technology, the progress of personal technology, the rise of the internet etc. and then turns out to be right on all his predictions
Also there were a number of people who had predicted the fall of the Soviet Union and increased use of technology (the first Terminator movie was released in 1984).
Some of his predicitons could also be considered self fulfilling since they related to technology he was personally responsible for developing.
I don't mean to discredit Kurzweil, i'm sure his books would be a good read and it would be well worth considering his opinions. I only want to point out that any predicitons should be viewed with caution and to use a common financial disclaimer "past performance is no guarantee of future return".
Scott Kirchner
http://www.ausfootbag.org
http://www.ausfootbag.org
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BainbridgeShred
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BainbridgeShred
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OMG YESH A FINANCIAL MELTDOWN IN WALL ST. WOULD ROK FOR CANADA!!@Z!@!Soon we'll get to see how the US likes getting financially owned by Asia and Europe, not to mention brutally sodomized by the Middle-East. A neat little turn of events after the years of modern imperialism which the US has brought upon the third world.
Take it bitches....take it.
*shaking my head at idiots who think a collapse of the current financial structure would be a good thing for the world (or their country, especially if ur right fucking above us and mimic our every cultural nuance [that show abotu trailer parks being the exception to the rule])
If you want proof that Canada has already vested their interest with the US, take a look at "The Security and Prosperity Partnership of North America". Or the fact that your country has already conformed to American security, energy, military, and trade policies in order to ensure an open border. Yes, if you don't like those facts about your country, maybe an economic fallout down south is a good thing for people of your kind, but don't expect the luxury of spending 30 dollars (USD/Loonie) on hackey sacks.
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BainbridgeShred
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BainbridgeShred
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And I say that based on the fact that if you look at a chart of the Price/Earning's ratio (That being, basically taking the stock price and dividing it by the company's earnings that fiscal year per share of stock) from say 1860 through 2007, you can easily predict when the market is about to fall. It isn't precise, but its based on the reasoning that its the reciprocal of the interest rate. So if you pay $100 for a share of stock, and you get back $5 per year, then you're earning 5% interest per year, and 1/20 = 5%.
Anyways, the P/E ratio spiked up crazily earlier this millenium to 46.7 before falling drastically to 17. And when the average is 14, a fluxuation from 46 to 17 is not a good sign, despite what "economists" on television say while ignoring the law of mean reversion. But still they'll say the same old BS about "the valuations not being able to fall what they are at today", aka the same line economist's have said right before every financial collapse in history.
What I'm trying to say if I haven't already mixed your brains into mush, is the the global financial system is failing, and whether or not every other country in the world goes to Euro's as the market denominator, it isn't going to save what's to come.
Either that or I'm totally wrong and the US will get through these rocky times and continue being the economic leader of the world.
Anyways, the P/E ratio spiked up crazily earlier this millenium to 46.7 before falling drastically to 17. And when the average is 14, a fluxuation from 46 to 17 is not a good sign, despite what "economists" on television say while ignoring the law of mean reversion. But still they'll say the same old BS about "the valuations not being able to fall what they are at today", aka the same line economist's have said right before every financial collapse in history.
What I'm trying to say if I haven't already mixed your brains into mush, is the the global financial system is failing, and whether or not every other country in the world goes to Euro's as the market denominator, it isn't going to save what's to come.
Either that or I'm totally wrong and the US will get through these rocky times and continue being the economic leader of the world.
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BainbridgeShred
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HighDemonslayer
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The people who should really eat the shit when the dollar collapses, wont.
They have sold everybody out, and protected themselves with overseas accounts and porfolios, future United Nations and IMF appointments.
The people who will really eat it, are the complacent , ignorant American's that fill baseball stadiums, who have been duped by the Establishment.
They will wake up one morning to a new currency,and a U.S./Canadian/Mexican continental police force.
One hurricane, disease epidemic, or staged terror attack, is all that is required to collapse the currency and bring in martial law.
All of his will, however, be very entertaining for foreign television viewers.
Think of the bonding you'll get, with friends and neighbors, at your nightly parties ,celebrating the meltdown and destitution of the American people.
-hds
They have sold everybody out, and protected themselves with overseas accounts and porfolios, future United Nations and IMF appointments.
The people who will really eat it, are the complacent , ignorant American's that fill baseball stadiums, who have been duped by the Establishment.
They will wake up one morning to a new currency,and a U.S./Canadian/Mexican continental police force.
One hurricane, disease epidemic, or staged terror attack, is all that is required to collapse the currency and bring in martial law.
All of his will, however, be very entertaining for foreign television viewers.
Think of the bonding you'll get, with friends and neighbors, at your nightly parties ,celebrating the meltdown and destitution of the American people.
-hds
Is Wayne Brady gonna have to choke a bitch?
-----------------------------------
-nathan
-----------------------------------
-nathan
Sorry, I worded that quoted statement badly. I didn't mean that all his predictions have come true, but all the ones on the issues I mentioned. I was writing faster than I was thinkingScott wrote:Thanks for the link, that was an interesting read.
The last sentence of my post did cover the scenario of someone who can repeatedly make accurate predictions. I merely wanted to point out that a successful prediction on it's own doesn't say much at all.
To make an accurate judgement of someone's ability I would at least want to know the total number of predictions made and the percentage that were successful.
I would also consider other factors such as the self-fulfilling nature of the predictions. For instance if enough people predict that the stockmarket will rise then they will bring about that result by the influence of their decisions on the market.
Jeremy wrote:It's not really correct to say he 'turns out to be right on all his predicitons' given that he also made a number of predictions that didn't eventuate.when somebody like Ray Kurzweil makes predictions about the fall of the Soviet Union, the progress of military technology, the progress of personal technology, the rise of the internet etc. and then turns out to be right on all his predictions
Also there were a number of people who had predicted the fall of the Soviet Union and increased use of technology (the first Terminator movie was released in 1984).
Some of his predicitons could also be considered self fulfilling since they related to technology he was personally responsible for developing.
I don't mean to discredit Kurzweil, i'm sure his books would be a good read and it would be well worth considering his opinions. I only want to point out that any predicitons should be viewed with caution and to use a common financial disclaimer "past performance is no guarantee of future return".
I agree that it's good to be cautious and sceptical. I don't think we should assume that Kurzweil's predictions are correct and define policy based on them. I just think it's interesting that somebody with such a good track record, described by Bill Gates as the best person alive at predicting the future (or something to that effect) has predicted that the US will fall from global dominance by 2009 for economic reasons.
His predictions aren't just intuitive guesses at what will happen in the world, they are based on examining the evidence and then trying to extrapolate it out into the future.
Anyway we can come back to this debate in December 2009 and see how good he really is
