2017-2018 NBA Season

[C-Fan]

But Ken, the NBA season doesn't start for another 4 months!

That's where you're wrong. While they don’t start playing the games until around Halloween, teams are making lots of moves right now that are going to have huge consequences for the season. It’s been a crazy off-season so far, so let’s hit some highlights.

Chris Paul, Jimmy Butler, and Paul George all went to new teams since the season ended. While those are all notable moves just on their own, what’s really mind-blowing is how little their new teams had to give up to get them. Paul George’s value may have been deflated since his deal is expiring, and teams didn’t want to give up much for him in case he decides to leave for LA in a year. But even so, I expected Indiana would at least get some draft picks for him. Jimmy Butler has one more year on his deal, so he was a bit of a safer bet, but even he didn’t fetch much in return. The best player LA got in the CP3 deal was Pat Beverley… yipes.

The Warriors just came off the winningest 3 year stretch in NBA history, including 2 titles. Usually when a team has this kind of success, they have trouble keeping the band together as people want more playing time, more money, more credit. Going into this off season the question wasn’t whether the Warriors could keep their best players, but rather could they keep their secondary glue guys. When Durant took a pay cut, it set the stage for them to be able to keep these guys. Livingston and Iguodala could have left for more money elsewhere, but since they stayed you have to see the Warriors as a potential dynasty for the next 3-5 years. Add to that that other ring-chasing vets are willing to take paycuts for a shot to play with them, and you get guys like Casspi and Nick Young on cheap deals to give them even more depth. Kinda unfair.

I have a bad feeling about the Cavs. They had one of the better GMs in the league in David Griffin, and they let him walk because they didn’t want to pay him. If you knew you weren’t going to bring him back, shouldn’t you have a list of backups pre-selected? Apparently they didn’t, and the offer they made to their only real candidate (Chauncey Billups) was a lowball which he refused. So the Cavs went through the draft and this offseason with no GM at the wheel. Kind of dangerous/stupid when LeBron can walk away after next year. It sounds like they almost had a deal to flip Love for Paul George, but it didn’t happen. If the Cavs lose to the Warriors again next year, is LeBron going to look at his situation and say: “I ended Cleveland’s championship drought, management doesn’t know what they’re doing, and I can’t beat the Warriors with this group of guys. I’m gone.” I wouldn’t be surprised if he leaves, and most people (rightfully) blame the owner and management for squandering their second chance with LeBron.

The Knicks finally fired Phil Jackson. They should have done this at least a year ago; he was awful for them. In his entire time with the Knicks, the only good thing I can recall him doing is drafting Porzingis. The way he antagonized his franchise player was counterproductive (lowered his trade value) and stupid, especially since PHIL IS THE ONE WHO GAVE HIM A NO TRADE CLAUSE. He dug his own grave on that one, so he had no right to complain about it. I was cautiously optimistic the Knicks would get better without Phil, just by regressing to the mean, but then they bid against themselves by offering Tim Hardaway Junior $71M over 4 years. You know, the same player they basically gave to the Hawks for free a few years ago. Also please ignore the fact that nobody else was gonna offer even half that contract for him, or that KCP is now an unrestricted free agent but the Knicks can’t offer on him because they have an open offer sheet on THJ at the moment. Just wow. Kristaps seems smart enough to run from this dumpster fire…we’ll see if the Knicks are smart enough to trade him before then so they can at least get something back.

Hayward went to the Celtics as a free agent. First off, this is like the only instance I can think of this summer where an all-star level player went from the Western conference to the East. Seems like everybody else went from the East to the West. That alone is a smart move for Hayward, as it’ll make it a lot easier for him to make an All Star team and advance in the playoffs too. This one was interesting also because the Jazz basically did everything right (acquired Rubio, re-signed Joe Ingles who is Haywards best friend, slowly built up young talent over the past couple years, won a playoff series this year, etc.) and STILL lost their franchise player. That hurts. The Celts did well because they acquired a secondary scorer/ballhandler at a position of need, and didn’t give up any draft picks or assets to get him. I guess in a sense they had to give up some assets in that, in order to sign Hayward to a max contract, they had to trade away Avery Bradley. But that’s something you do 10 times out of 10 to get a guy like Hayward.

I have so much more I want to cover, but I’m not in a hurry. More later.

[C-Fan]

Haven't been watching actual Summer League games, but I've been following some reports and even video recaps from it. You never want to read too much into Summer League, since it's a mix of rookies, bench players, and washouts trying to get back into the league. So not a lot of team play, not a lot of experience, and lots of guys are just gunning for stats in games that don't count for anything. That said, it's still neat seeing which prospects appear more comfortable with the transition than others.

Lonzo Ball- The #2 pick had a brutal first game of summer league, followed by a string of dominant games. I think he had 2 triple doubles sandwiched around a 36/5/11 game. I watched some of the highlights, and what stood out for me (beyond his goofy shooting mechanics) was his outlet passing. Not quite Kevin Love level, but impressive nonetheless, and not something you usually see rookie point guards do. I'm not a Lakers fan, and I found Lonzo's hype/dad pretty off-putting, but I think he's actually going to be a really good pro.

Dennis Smith Jr.- Dude was the 9th pick, but it seems the Mavs have really bought into him and are gonna let him have the ball a ton. I think I read Vegas had 16:1 odds for him for ROY before Summer League, and now that's dropped a ton since he looks so good.

Jayson Tatum- Celtics traded down from the first pick to the third, which means they viewed Tatum (or really Tatum plus a good pick next year) as about as good as having Fultz. His offensive game really looks polished for such a young player, so maybe they end up being correct. He had to miss some Summer League games due to a minor injury, but I'm definitely intrigued to see how he fares next year.

In non-Summer League news, its sounding a lot like Carmelo is not going to be in NYC next year. It's weird though, since the only teams who actively want him (Houston and Cleveland) don't really have the assets NY would want. So I'd wager that he only goes to one of those sites if they can bring in a third team in a deal somehow. That or if Melo waives the no-trade clause, or at least gives management more options for places he could go. Personally, I think he'd make a good fit in Miami. We'll see what happens.

[C-Fan]

Pretty entertaining offseason so far.

Check out this list of superstar players who left for new teams since the Finals ended a month ago:

Chris Paul (Clips to Rockets)
Paul George (Pacers to Thunder)
Jimmy Butler (Bulls to Wolves)
Gordon Hayward (Jazz to Celtics)

And then its looking likely that Melo and Kyrie will join that list by the end of the summer too. That's a lot of talent moving around!

Out West, I think the Rockets have to be considered the 2nd best team now behind the Warriors. The Spurs were better than them last year, but the Spurs offseason has been pretty meh. They resigned Pau Gasol at way above market value, their big free agent was Rudy Gay coming off an achilles injury, and their best move was re-signing Patty Mills? To me that just says they got one year older and not any better.

The East is a lot more intriguing to me. The Celts weren't ready to challenge the Cavs last year, but with the addition of Hayward and Jayson Tatum and the potential subtraction of Kyrie leaving, plus the distractions that will surround LeBron in the last year of his contract...could this be the year LeBron's finals streak ends? I think it's on the table.

[C-Fan]

Pretty entertaining offseason so far.

And then its looking likely that Melo and Kyrie will join that list by the end of the summer too. That's a lot of talent moving around!

Well Kyrie moved...so now looks like Carmelo is the last piece left to potentially move. Unless you count Wade, who is apparently a strong candidate to be bought out by the Bulls. Though if I were the Bulls, I'd try and trade him first. I don't see any advantage to them in just straight buying him out.

The Celts weren't ready to challenge the Cavs last year, but with the addition of Hayward and Jayson Tatum and the potential subtraction of Kyrie leaving

I was definitely surprised to see the Cavs and Celtics trade with each other. I think I'd still give Cleveland the advantage over the Celts this year, but long term I like the Celtics better. As for the trade itself, I thought the Cavs did really well. I don't think the Celtics got ripped off by any means, but given the situation the Cavs are in (i.e. not knowing if LeBron stays past next year), they did amazingly well in this trade. They somehow were able to stay competitive for the near future (necessary if LeBron is to stay) while also building for the future (necessary if LeBron leaves).

The reason I think it's hard to declare a winner in the trade, is that it's so full of uncertain pieces. I feel like the only assets in the trade that have known, predictable value are:

Kyrie. We know he's good, he's under contract for 2 more years, he has a big salary but one that reflects his value.
Crowder. We know he's a decent rotation player, who can play defense at a position of need on the wing (at least he did 2 years ago; last year his D slipped), under contract I think for 2 more years at one of the best contract values in the league.

After that, every other asset in the trade carries unknowns.

Isaiah Thomas. Last year had one of the most efficient offensive seasons of any PG ever. But he's coming off a serious hip injury that has ended careers in the past, and there's no guarantee he'll be the player he was last year. Add to this that he's going to ask for a max contract, and you have the possibility that in a couple years you are paying max money to a short, defensive liability of a player who can no longer explode to the rim. On the flip of it, if he truly has recovered, then he's probably worth close to the max. But when people straight up compare IT to Kyrie, it's a flawed comparison because we don't know how he'll come off his injury.

Ante Zizic. A minor asset in the trade, sure. But definitely an unknown. He looked good in Europe the past couple years, but then looked awful in summer league. Nobody really knows if this will end up being just salary filler, or if maybe down the line he becomes a decent backup with value.

The Nets pick. Ah. Now this is interesting. The pick is completely unprotected, so it could be as high as #1 next year, in a loaded draft. If that happens, then the Cavs almost certainly won the trade (Kyrie for Crowder's contract and a top lottery pick straight up is a good trade, plus they get to roll the dice on IT for one season). On the flipside, there's no guarantee the Nets pick ends up that high. I think they'll end up better than last year if Lin is healthy and Russell develops the way you'd expect a #2 pick to in their third year), while a bunch of other teams could easily tank and end up with worse records than the Nets.

So based on all this, I think it was a good deal for both sides. The Celtics traded assets with high upside but some risk (IT and the Nets pick) in exchange for a franchise level player with a more predictable floor. The Cavs got assets that help them in the short term and the long term, and have the potential to be really good. If IT never recovers from his injury and the Nets pick ends up as #7 or something, then the trade will end up looking worse for the Cavs. But right now, in late August of 2017, this is a good trade for both sides.

Oh, and the first game of the season is less than 2 months away now, will be on national TV, and is... Celtics vs. Cavs. Can't. Wait.

[C-Fan]

Juuuust over a month until the NBA season kicks off. On one hand, I'm really excited for it. Lots of superstars moved over the summer, and it should be fun to see how they work out with their new respective teams. On the other hand, I have the same feeling I did last summer, where I know the Warriors are so strong that chances are nobody can beat them. So while it should be fun to see the new look Rockets/Celts/Thunder... its also kind of a moot point. Finals will probably be Warriors-Cavs with the Dubs winning it all, or if we get lucky and there's a shakeup in the East, it'll still be Warriors over Celtics. Definitely dampens the excitement some knowing the outcome of the season before a single game has even been played.

That's why I was excited to learn my Fantasy NBA league from the past 2 years is coming back again! Following individual players on my teams adds a layer of excitement for me, so I'm stoked to get to do this again. The draft isn't for another month, but already I'm trying to identify players that I think are under and over valued in terms of Fantasy. I have a few ideas about how I'll approach draft night based on this.

My strategy last year basically was:

I'm doing fantasy NBA again this year... I basically sat out the first 5 good players to hit the auction block. My thinking was, rather than spend the bulk of my money on 2 great guys, I'd spend my money on 5 really good guys who are a tier below or so.

That worked out beautifully for me. While most teams had 2-3 players as the core of their team, I had a core of about 5. Not only did this spread out the risks of injury, it also meant my production wasn't as vulnerable to the schedule either. It also made it more fun for me, as I was cheering on 5-6 superstars instead of just 2-3. I'm going to try and pursue a similar strategy this year.

[C-Fan]

And then its looking likely that Melo and Kyrie will join that list by the end of the summer too. That's a lot of talent moving around!

Well Kyrie moved...so now looks like Carmelo is the last piece left to potentially move. Unless you count Wade, who is apparently a strong candidate to be bought out by the Bulls.
[/quote]

...aaaand over the weekend both these things happened. Carmelo expanded his list of teams he'd accept trades to, and the Bulls bought out Wade. Melo went to OKC for Enes Kanter's bloated contract and spare parts, and Wade shaved off $8M of his salary to be bought out. Both of these moves just seemed awful for/by management.

As for OKC, it definitely feels like they're taking a gamble. But if you're a sleepy small market that never attracted free agents before, it's probably a good idea to gamble rather than just watch things slowly crumble around you. Recapping OKC's summer, they turned Oladipo, Sabonis, Kanter, McDermott, and a 2nd round pick into Paul George and Carmelo. Granted, both of them (plus Russ!) can leave after this season, but for the next year at least they should be interesting and consequently give their fans something to watch. And honestly, even if all 3 of their all stars left town next year, I'd rather be in full rebuild mode than still be paying big money to guys like Oladipo and Kanter as you rebuild. So lots of credit to OKC's management there.

Still no word on where Wade goes. I think he could be a good backup wherever he goes, give some decent minutes in the playoffs, but I don't see him carrying a franchise on his own any more.

On the Fantasy side, I'm real curious to see what statistical impact some of these player moves will have on various players. Westbrook was a fantasy beast least year, largely because he was the only option on his team and had an insane usage rate. With Paul George and Carmelo on the team now, will he defer more? I could see that cutting into his raw output, but maybe improving his efficiency. On a similar note, it seems like all the talent movement this offseason was Eastern conference players moving out West. I wonder if the remaining Eastern Conference all-star level players will see a bump in their stats, since they'll be facing less competition for more of their games?

[C-Fan]

My Fantasy NBA league had our draft last night. It's a 10 team league, 9 categories (so turnovers count), 13 players per team. So 130 players total, and you have $200 budget you use auction style. Going into it, I had the following thoughts/expectations/strategies:

Most draft analysis I had read showed a "top 7" for this year. Basically, the god tier of players for fantasy at the very top. This was KAT, Giannis, Durant, Curry, Harden,Westbrook, and Anthony Davis. Roughly in that order, with the top 3 being considered interchangeable.

Even though you have $200 to spend on 13 players, the distribution of funds most people recommend is something like $65 on your best player, then $40 on your next best, then you round out your bench with a bunch of $2 and $1 guys. So not an even distribution. I've also seen people do things like try and nab two top 10 guys for around $60 each, and then have a thinner bench.

My league counts turnovers, Free Throw percentage, and Field Goal percentage. This means guys like Dwight Howard and Andre Drummond aren't as good as in other formats, since their FT% is so awful you likely lose that category every week, even if they help you in rebounds and blocks. Similarly, guys like Westbrook who put up a ton of counting stats, but at at bad FG% and with lots of turnovers, also aren't as good as in other formats.

This offseason saw a ton of superstars move around. From a Fantasy strategy perspective, I'm predicting 2 impacts. First, superstars with high usage rates that joined up will probably have slightly deflated stats compared to last year. Second, teams that lost their only superstars will have other players step up to fill the statistical void. So starters with big contracts on bad teams that lost superstars (e.g. Knicks, Pacers, Hawks) should hopefully put up big numbers.

Another strategy I used in my draft, was identifying players I had zero interest in drafting, nominating them for bid early on, and then letting other owners spend money/roster spots on them. If I could get people to bid on LeBron in the first 10 spots of the draft, that's one less roster spot and hopefully $50 less bucks another owner has to bid against me when somebody I like more comes up.

I'll get into the nitty gritty of how my draft shook out, but for now here's the rundown of how much people paid for the most expensive players, and my quick thoughts on them.

1. Giannis- $80. Most mocks had Giannis/KAT/Durant as top 3, and I had Giannis/KAT as my interchangeable top 2. So I'm not surprised that Giannis went as the most expensive player in our draft. That said, $80 for him seems way high, especially considering KAT went for $60 and Durant went for $65. Hell, I could have forgiven Giannis for $80 if that owner picked a strong #2 option, but his second and third most expensive players were LeBron ($55) and Hayward ($34). LeBron is still great in real life, but I'm not sure he's even top 10 in terms of fantasy this year. Hayward I think will take a step back compared to last year, since he now has multiple other stars on his team. Giannis at $80 is too much, but looks even worse with LeBron as his second pick.

2. Harden- $71. If this were 8 cat, instead of 9 cat, I'd be fine with this. But given that turnovers count against us, $71 seems way high for a guy like Harden. Maybe this owner was hoping the addition of CP3 would mean less ballhandling and fewer turnovers for Harden, but wouldn't that also mean fewer assists too? The high turnover potential, combined with the fact that CP3 will soak up some of his possessions, has me lower on Harden than last year. $71 is the price you pay for a guy you think will be #1 in Fantasy, when I think Harden will be closer to #5 this season. Too expensive.

3. Westbrook- $67. Very similar to the Harden pick, in that it seems to ignore the high turnovers plus the addition of superstars in the offseason. Last year, Westbrook was a one man show. This year, he'll have Paul George and Carmelo on his team. I still expect Westbrook to put up gaudy stats, and likely be more efficient...but I can't see him putting up the same numbers as last year. The new guys also won't do much to help his historic turnover numbers. $67 is a lot to pay for iffy percentages, high turnovers, and likely depleted stats due to new superstar teammates. Can't sign off on this price tag.

4. Durant- $65. Top 3 player who might finish the season at #1, for cheaper than 3 other guys and $15 less than the most expensive player in our league? Yes please. If Durant hadn't missed some games due to the freak Zaza injury, I think he'd likely be the consensus #1 this year. Even taking into account the growth potential of KAT and Giannis. $65 for Durant is fine.

5. Curry- $64. I like Curry in this ballpark price range. The fact you could have spent a dollar more for Durant though is a bit frustrating, as I'd rather have Durant over Curry. Assuming Curry stays healthy, he's fine at this price range...though I might like him closer to $60.

6. Anthony Davis- $62. If you told me the Brow finished this season as the #1 fantasy asset, I wouldn't be surprised in the least. I also wouldn't be surprised if you told me he spent 20+ games injured. He's like a less risky version of Embiid, but he still carries risk. Of the top 10 players in Fantasy, he makes me the most nervous. $62 is a bet on him staying healthy. It's not a bad bet, but it's definitely still a bit of a gamble.

7. Karl Towns- $60. This was my pick, and I'm still amazed I snagged him at this price. Interesting that my league's top 7 picks matched the consensus top 7 in Fantasy, albeit in a very different order. I had them ranked personally as: Giannis and KAT tied for #1. Durant at #3. Curry at #4. Harden at #5 since he has better percentages than: Westbrook at #6. And I'd close out the top 7 with Brow at #7, purely due to injury risk. The fact that I got Towns at the cheapest price of the Fantasy top 7 was completely unexpected. I won our league last year largely on the strength of KAT's second half, so I'm optimistic about my chances this year with him as my anchor again.

While most analysts concurred there is a top 7 this season, and our league reflected that in our top 7 picks, our league also spent similar money on a few more players. In order, they are:

8. LeBron-$55. Touched on him earlier, but given he's in the East and only cares about making the playoffs (doesn't care about seeding), I could easily see him missing games and saving himself for the post season. I'd rather have a guy like Jokic over LeBron this season.

9. Kawhi- $54. I can understand people reaching a bit for Kawhi, given how good he has been in past years. That said, the injury news over the summer about his lingering quad injury from last year scared me off. A lot of mock drafts saw him fall out of the top 10 for the same reason, as he skipped the entire preseason and may not play in the season opener. I was willing to take a chance on Kawhi if he fell in our league, but no way was I going to spend this much on him.

10. John Wall- $48. I'd easily take Wall over LeBron or Kawhi this year. This is definitely money better spent than on those picks.

11 & 12. Gobert/DeMarcus Cousins- $46. Similarly, I'd take either of these guys over LeBron or Kawhi this year. I'd probably take Gobert over Wall as well. Cousins feels a bit risky, as he's sharing the court with Brow, he might miss games due to technicals, and he could easily be traded at some point. Still, I like both these guys at $46 more than LBJ/Kawhi at over $50.

13 & 14. Whiteside/Jokic- $45. Jokic at $45 feels like a steal. I'd take him over Wall...I could see him as a top 8 player this year. So getting him at $45 is great. Whiteside is like a poor man's Gobert. If he's your best center though, that's not bad at all.

15. Kyrie- $42. He's a bit of a question mark for me. I expect his usage to go up, but I honestly don't know how he'll look in the Celtics system. At $42 he feels like a pretty safe bet.

16 & 17. Paul and Lillard- $40. I like Lillard at $40. He's like a poor man's Curry, for a third cheaper. Paul I'm less sure about. Splitting the ball with Harden is probably going to dent his value some...but at $40 he's in the right range. Last year I snagged him for $36, so it's weird he'd be $4 more expensive this year when you figure his stats will be worse.

So that's the top 17 players in our league, by price. I think we did pretty well identifying the top players, though I do think the rankings they ended up at are a bit wonky. I'll analyze my team and picks in a later post.

[C-Fan]

NBA season starts tonight! And there are 2 good games on TNT Overtime, so I can watch! Yes!

As promised, here's some more gory blow-by-blow analysis of how I felt my draft went.

Overall I was very pleased with how my draft went. I had some good luck with KAT falling to me at a reasonable price (6 players went at higher prices), and my strat of making others waste roster spots and money on players I had no interest in mostly worked. I did finish the draft with $15 left over, which is disappointing. I had my eyes on some late targets that I thought people would bid against me for, but for the most part I got them without a fight, hence the leftover cash. If I could have gone back and re-done things, I would have been more agressive bidding on mid-round point guards like Dragic. It's weird coming out of this year's draft so weak at PG, when last year I had Wall and CP3 anchoring that spot.

Anyway, in order of cost, here's my team:

KAT- $60. I went into the draft valuing KAT, Giannis, and Durant higher than any other players. With KAT specifically, I value that he hasn't missed a game in his NBA career, shoots good percentages including free throws, and that he totally carried my team in the second half of last year. He basically averaged 28 and 13 over the second half of the season. I was hoping to get a top 7 player in the $60 range, but I wasn't expecting to get a top 3 player for $60 flat. I felt really good going forward in the draft with KAT as my first move/pick.

Myles Turner- $31. Didn't feel bad using my first 2 picks on Centers, given its a position of rarity and both these guys shoot 3s and rack up blocks. I got Turner last year as well, and gave up on him too early. I'm optimistic for his outlook this year, since Paul George left town and he is now the face of the franchise. He also doesn't hurt me on percentages or turnovers. If I had somehow ended up with Harden or Westbrook in my top 2 picks, I might have changed my strategy to punt percentages. But with KAT and Myles as my first two picks, my plan was to try and win blocks and percentages. Feel good to come away with these 2 as my first two picks.

Blake Griffin- $24. This was a weird one I didn't quite see coming. Similar to Myles, Blake became the face of his franchise this summer when another superstar left and I also expect his usage to bump up because of that. Unlike Myles though, Blake has a history of missing games due to injuries, and was even expected to miss time at the start of this season. Going into the preseason I even IDed Blake as a "decoy" I'd float in my league, with the hope somebody else would take him. But then over the summer he healed ahead of schedule, and looked good in preseason games. He's still an injury risk, but I updated my cheat sheet to "do not draft too early." When he came up on draft night, my strategy was to bid on him up to about $25, but if the bidding went into the $30s let somebody else take him. I was a bit surprised when the bidding stopped at $24, as riskier guys went for higher. I definitely think Blake's an injury risk and a gamble, but for $24 I am willing to take on that risk. For comparison's sake Embiid went for $21, and I think he's way riskier.

Marc Gasol- $21. At this stage I was starting to worry I was taking on too many bigs, and not enough wings or guards. Probably a legit worry, but I couldn't resist taking Gasol for $21. I had him and Conley ranked pretty high, since they're basically the only good players left on the Grizzlies. While I was a bit nervous taking 3 centers and a PF with my first 4 picks, I justified it telling myself I can always make a trade later in the season if need be. I also promised myself I wouldn't pick any more centers for the rest of the draft.

Jrue Holiday-$13. Good point guards were already drying up at this stage, so I overpaid a bit for Jrue here. I was betting on a few things with this pick. First, Jrue has a reputation for being injury prone, but he actually hasn't been that bad the past 2 seasons (he missed a chunk of time due to his wife falling ill). Second, dude averaged around 7 assists a season, and he has 2 of the best bigs in the game to pass to. Third, he's eligible at PG and SG, and I didn't have one of either at this stage.

Dennis Schroder- $12. The way I explained it to Haley: Do I think he's good? No. Would I pay to see him play when the Hawks come to Denver. No. Do I think there's anybody else on his team who can score the basketball? No. Which is why I paid a premium to get him. Nobody on the Hawks can score, and they basically have no backup point guards. On usage alone, I'm expecting he's going to put up great numbers.

Aaron Gordon- $7. I was high on AG breaking out last season, and drafted him for $2. I also cut him since he was so inconsistent. There's also a chance he's inconsistent this year, but based on how he finished last season, how he played in pre-season, and the fact that the Magic are thin on the wing...I'm betting he'll get a lot of run. Plus I had no small forwards, so getting one with a lot of potential upside for $7 seemed like a good idea.

James Johnson- $6. He had a crazy year last season, but it was a contract year and he got paid. So no guarantees he'll be nearly as good this year. For $6 though, he was definitely one of the best values left at SF especially considering his steals/blocks. It looks like he'll be the starter for the Heat this season, so he should have more minutes to put up stats as well. As long as he doesn't regress horribly, I liked this pick at this price.

Marquesse Chriss- $4. At this stage in the draft, I realized I'm probably not winning the assists category in my matchups most weeks. So rather than try and patch a big hole, might as well punt it and focus on strengthening an area where I'm already pretty strong. Blocks. Or maybe I just listened to too many NBA draft pods, drank the kool aid, and am buying the hype on a teenager who may continue to struggle as a sophomore. For $4 though, I figured I'd rather gamble on upside than pick somebody with a safe floor. Chriss should get a lot of minutes, and provided he doesn't foul as much as last year he should help me a lot in blocks.

Dennis Smith Jr.- $3. Was surprised how many promising PGs were left this late in the draft. With so little on the line, I continued the strategy of betting on players with high upside, instead of known quantity guys with higher floors but lower ceilings. The hype on DSJ has been strong since Summer League, and everything I've read out of Dallas says they're giving the keys to the car to him. I'm not banking on many assists, but as long as he doesn't kill me in turnovers I think he'll be fun to own. Mostly just excited to watch his highlight dunks really.

Willy Hernangomez- $2. Broke my promise to myself, and picked up another center. Argh. Should have spent more money and this roster spot on a better wing. I get that Willy HG is risky since the Knicks have so many centers, but he is the best of that crop as well as the youngest, so you'd hope they'd start him. Of course, this is the Knicks we're talking about, so they'll probably do the exact opposite of what makes sense. Strategically I regret this choice, but it only cost me $2. There's also a decent chance he starts the season off well and I can trade him before Noah comes back and eats into his minutes. I also wouldn't be surprised if he finishes the year as the starter averaging 10/10. If I had fewer bigs before this pick, I probably would be a lot happier about it. But its also not an awful pick (I didn't spend money, and he'll have some value).

Tim Hardaway Jr.- $1. Really expected people would bid more against me for THJ. Is he wildly overpaid in real life? Yes. Is he a good NBA player? Not really. But he's the clear #2 option for the Knicks this year, he has eligibility at SG and SF, and he shoots good %ages without turning it over. I don't think he'll be my team's MVP and he doesn't have the upside of DSJ, Chriss, or Aaron Gordon. But he should be pretty solid for me at a position of need, and that's saying a lot for a guy who only cost me one dollar.

Austin Rivers- $1. I mentioned in my last post one of my main strategies this year; nominating players I had zero interest in drafting, in the hope others would waste money and a roster spot on them early in the draft. This strat worked remarkably well, as I nominated LeBron ($55), Carmelo ($16), Wade ($5), and Isaiah Thomas ($7) in early rounds. All players I wouldn't have drafted myself, that others drafted too early due to my strat. I gave up on the strategy though once it backfired with Austin Rivers. I figured somebody would bite on him, given that CP3 and JJ Redick both left this offseason, which theoretically would open up a lot of guard minutes for Rivers. Nobody bit though, so it cost me a roster spot and a dollar. Doesn't sound like much, but functionally it meant I had one less pick than everybody else in the draft. Could have been worse though, especially since I was able to drop Rivers immediately after the draft and replace him with Rodney Hood off the waiver wire.

Rodney Hood- waiver wire. Was a bit surprised nobody picked him in the actual draft. He has a bit of an injury history, but he's also the poster child of a breakout candidate. Hayward left the Jazz over the summer, and other than Gobert they don't have any reliable scorers. Even a defensive minded team needs somebody to score. I also read that Hood and the Jazz are unlikely to reach a contract extension this summer, which means he has every incentive to play well this season to get a fatter contract next year. If he can stay healthy, I could see him blossoming into a scorer. If not, I'll cut a guy I pulled off the waiver wire for free.

New season starts tonight! Whoo!

[C-Fan]

First night of the NBA season was fun. I tuned into the Celtics-Cavs game halfway through, and the Celtics were down 18 points and had lost Hayward to a gruesome injury that could be season ending for him. I almost tuned out with the plan of watching the first half of the second game, but we stuck around and I'm glad we did. The Celtics got it to a tied game, both teams seesawed the lead for a bit, and it came down to the final posessions. Exactly what I love to watch in the NBA. So that was great. I didn't stay up to watch the second game, but it went down to the buzzer too, so that's a great start for the season.

I watched the Hayward injury on YT, and man that's tough to watch. Not as bad as Shaun Livingston's leg break from back in the day, but about as bad as Paul George's. Which was also tough to watch. Other than that incredibly unlucky down note, it was fun watching this new Celtics team. The rookie Tatum made some impressive plays, and Jaylen Brown really impressed me. So much so that I dropped Willy Hernangomez from my fantasy team and picked him up. I figure with Willy HG my best case scenario was like a 12/12 if he wins the starting job, and a worst case scenario of him getting like 9/9 if he has to split minutes at center with all the other crappier Knicks centers. Jaylen Brown on the other hand, may only end up averaging a 12/8 if he's a "bust," but given Hayward's injury I expect him to get a lot of minutes. And he certainly shows a lot of upside potential. I feel like my Fantasy team and strategy is a lot more risky than last year. Like, I'm rolling the dice on players with unrealized potential instead of the safe bets. Also betting that some people with injury histories have relatively healthy years. I can see both of these things being frustrating, but also keeping it interesting.

After the Hayward injury, I checked my league to see who had drafted him and for how much.

1. Giannis- $80. I could have forgiven Giannis for $80 if that owner picked a strong #2 option, but his second and third most expensive players were LeBron ($55) and Hayward ($34). Hayward I think will take a step back compared to last year, since he now has multiple other stars on his team.

Oof. So I was already bagging on this owner for overpaying for Giannis, overpaying for LeBron as his #2, and taking Hayward as his #3. Like, I was already low on Hayward before the injury. I wonder if the owner will cut bait immediately, or wait to see the rehab/surgery schedule. If it were me, I'd just cut him straight away. But then, I didn't value him at $34 when healthy either.

[Asmus]

I wasn't impressed with either Cavs or Celts. Wizards is getting the one seat and Wall wins MVP. Yeah, I said it.


Jaylen Brown did look good and was very entertaining to watch.

(Seriously: Durant will win MVP. Best player on by far the best team. Last year was weird with the MVP. This year we will be back to normal.)

I just talked myself into betting on this.

[C-Fan]

Those betting slips made me laugh out loud. I'm not even sure I understand what odds you got, but I love that you actually bet on them. I think Wall is a good dark horse candidate actually. If LeBron decides to rest during the regular season again like he did last year, the Celtics take time to gel (plus no Hayward), and the Raptors plateau, it's entirely possible the Wizards win the East. And if they do, with like 54 wins and Wall is the best player on the team...it could happen.

On the fantasy side, my team is off to a bumpy start. My top 4 players (KAT, Turner, Blake, and Marc Gasol) have delivered about as I expected, and some of my gambles (DSJ, Aaron Gordon) have shown promise. But some others I expected to be low ceiling but also low floor, have really disappointed (Jrue, Chriss, THJ). In some cases I'm not overly worried, especially where they played a lot of minutes but just had bad shooting nights... like THJ. But ones like Chriss where he only played 12 minutes and had 5 fouls, definitely concern me more long term. I'm doing my best to not overreact based on a single game though. I'd hate to drop some of these guys based off one bad game, and then see them blow up the rest of the season. On the flipside of all this, I also think I should be looking for trade opportunities with the other owners if they have players who have been injured or slow starting, that I expect will improve. I think I'd find that easier to do if I had more confidence in some of my assets.

The other thing that helps me keep perspective in Fantasy, is looking at the players I've dropped or didn't draft. I was high on Boban before the draft, but he's getting DNP-CDs from his coach. Similarly, I drafted Willy HG, and now its looking like he's the 3rd string center for the Knicks getting minimal time. I'm glad I dropped him before he played any games for me. So yeah, while some of my current guys have been frustrating, I take some comfort knowing I could have easily drafted worse players, or more frustrating players.

[C-Fan]

The other thing that helps me keep perspective in Fantasy, is looking at the players I've dropped or didn't draft.

Related to this, all the players I drafted who are off to disappointing starts didn't cost me that much. I mean, Jrue was $13 but everybody else I'm worried about cost me $4 or less. I'd much rather be in this position, than say the owners of Kawhi or CP3. Both those players could miss a chunk of games to start the season, and then will likely be eased back into normal minutes, and those guys cost their owners $54 and $40 respectively (most expensive player on either owner's roster). That'd be much bigger of a bummer to deal with. My worst case scenario probably is that I lose this first week of the season due to my weak links, I cut them, replace them with more consistent waiver guys (and there are still a lot of decent players on the waiver) with lower ceilings, and go from there.

On less of a Fantasy note, I am very curious to see how LeBron approaches the season. He was in beast mode in game 1 of the season, but he had a lot of motivation for that one since he was facing Kyrie. I have no doubt he could keep up this pace all season if he wanted to, but I'm half expecting he will have a similar season to last year, where he rests some games and defers to teammates more so he can stay fresh for the playoffs. He knows he can coast until pretty much May, wake up in the Eastern semifinals to get back into rhythm, and then be in peak form in the Finals. I honestly don't think he cares about anything beyond winning another title.

[Asmus]

On KD I will get my money back 5.5 times if he wins MVP. On Wall I will get my money back 25 times. I bet 20 DKK on both.

[C-Fan]

Nice. Now I'm low key rooting for Wall to get the upset MVP on the season, for your sake. It could happen. Its still so early, its hard to separate the noise from the truth.

A few random thoughts, one week into the season.

Man, it sure is nice having NBA podcasts every day. I think I've only got to watch half of one game this season, but I love following the NBA, and the podcasts really brighten up my 6 am dog walks in the pitch dark.

I'm happy for Philly, that after years of horrible basketball due to their intentional tanking, they finally get to see some fun basketball. The tanking seems to have paid off, at least with Simmons and Embiid. I really want to watch a game of theirs, as it sounds like Simmons plays like a young Grant Hill. And I loved young Grant Hill.

Things are really a mess in Phoenix. It makes sense for them to tank the season, as this is the last year where the lottery really rewards you for being the worst. That said, starting the year off with two blowout losses of over 40 points in the first three games. Damn. Coach fired already, and the best player has demanded a trade. Curious to see where Bledsoe goes. Doesn't seem like there's a lot of demand for point guards right now, and most teams that wanted one got one over the summer. Also, now that he demanded a trade he's removed what little leverage the Suns may have had in a trade. I'm guessing the best the Suns can get back for him would be something like Faried & Mudiay from Denver.

Kinda brutal start for the league in terms of injuries. Hayward and Lin had season ending injuries on back to back nights. CP3 played half a game, and has been out. Kawhi has yet to play. Brow had a scare last night, and will likely miss some games. Myles Turner basically played one game and got a concussion. Markelle Fultz, the #1 pick this year, has been playing with a bum shoulder that clearly is bothering him. Hopefully the pace and severity of injuries slows down...its crazy to start a season with so many people sidelined.

[Asmus]

Really agree about the podcasts. What are your faves? All The Ringer ones are great. I also like The Lowe Post and Jalen & Jacoby.

Watched Knicks @ Cavs. That was fun! Cavs look super bad though.

[C-Fan]

Yeah, I'm a bit surprised how bad the Cavs look. LeBron has been balling out, and they have Kevin Love, and they're in the crappy conference. You'd think those 3 things alone would guarantee a better record than they have. Even more concerning, a bunch of their losses have been to really bad teams too. I'm not overly worried though, as they just need to make the playoffs, and then LeBron should take care of the rest.

For Podcasts, my favorite one is the Lowe Post. My only complaint is that they don't come out regularly, so it's kind of feast-or-famine with those. The one I listen to regularly is The Starters. I've been listening to them guys since they were The Basketball Jones, before they got hired by the NBA. After that, I'd say The Ringer NBA Podcast is my next fav. Jalen and Jacoby I used to listen to, but after a while I found them kind of annoying. Like Jacoby just says "yes" to everything Jalen says, and they overuse their catchphrases to the point it annoyed me.

On the NBA fantasy front, I've had a frustrating start to the season. My second most expensive player has only played one game total, due to a concussion. Hopefully he comes back at the end of the week, but that's been an unexpected annoyance. Marc Gasol and Blake had real strong starts to the season, but they've been tapering off. My only real steal off the waiver wire has been Markkannen. Otherwise I've had mostly bad luck picking scrubs off there. I'm still kinda hoping to pull off a trade at some point, to liven things up.

[Asmus]

I get annoyed with J&J as well and just give it a break for a while. Then pick it back up. They have definitely fallen off though.
I don't really count The Starters as a podcast. It is a TV show these days. I do listen to there pod only stuff though as well as their twitter show. Watch most of their tv shows on YouTube during office hours.

Quick non-nba rant: It is amazing to me how bad The Ringers "soccer" podcast is compared to their NBA podcasts. Our discussions around the lunch table at work are more informed. They should hire me to be on there. If American sports experts know so little about "soccer" I wonder how little the average sports fan know.
If anybody reading this wanna listen to a "soccer" podcast - check this one out: https://meninblazers.com/page/podcasts

P.S.
Your offer for Jimmy.. Seriously?

[C-Fan]

To answer your question: Americans basically know nothing about soccer. We care about it once every 4 years during the World Cup, and even then people have no idea. Since the men didn't make the WC qualifier this year, expect us to get even dumber/more ignorant on it.

Sorry for the Jimmy B lowball. I think I was drinking, and was hoping you were too.

[C-Fan]

.Looks like Eric Bledsoe is being traded to the Bucks in exchange for Greg Monroe and a pick. Interesting. Not sure how much I like the trade for either side, but maybe that's because I'm relatively low on all the players involved. Monroe's skill set just seems outdated for a big man in today's game, but maybe the Suns aren't even interested in playing him, and just wanted off Bledsoe. Like, maybe the real piece they were dealing for was the first round pick from Milwaukee. As for the Bucks, you'd have to say Bledsoe is a talent upgrade. But positionally, he doesn't really bring them any shooting and he's another guard on a rotation that already is pretty stocked at that position. I wonder if they're going to do a follow up trade where they move another guard out. If I were Mil though, my whole goal right now would be to surround Giannis with shooters, and I don't see Bledsoe helping with that.

Your offer for Jimmy.. Seriously?

A little more context here. As I mentioned in previous posts, one of the big Fantasy questions for the season is how the offseason movement of various superstars was going to affect their statistical output. Several players last year were the only viable options for their teams, and therefore put out crazy stat output since they had no help. That list includes Westbrook, Harden, George, and Butler. With several of them joining other superstars, the big question was who would take statistical steps back, who would remain unchanged, and who might change their way of playing. When Butler joined Minnesota, my gut instinct was that he'd become the #2 option behind KAT, but definitely ahead of Wiggins and Teague. He started the season off slowly due to some respiratory illness and also meshing with a new team, so I threw Asmus a lowball trade offer with the idea that Butler was due to improve. 3 weeks into the season though, that improvement hasn't really come, at least not statistically. It almost seems like he's focusing on improving the team's defense, but that's not showing much in terms of Fantasy stats. Zach Lowe tweeted yesterday that Butler is currently 5th on the Wolves in terms of usage rate. While I didn't expect Butler to replicate his Bulls stats on his new team, I thought he might hit 80% of that. Now I'm not sure he will.

As for my own team, the big news is that Myles Turner finally returned from the concussion protocol. He was my second most expensive draft pick, so him missing 7 games to start the season due to an injury beyond his control really hurt. I don't want to celebrate too early though, as I don't want to jinx one of my other guys into injury. At the moment, I feel pretty solid about my top 4 on my team (KAT, Blake, Myles Turner, Marc Gasol), and I've been pleasantly surprised by most of my mid round guys (Aaron Gordon, James Johnson, Schroder, Jrue). The bottom of my team has seen a lot of roster churn as I try and find guys who will break out and stick. So far Lauri Markkanen is the best of that bunch. But honestly, this is half the fun of fantasy for me. Dumpster diving at the back of my bench to see if I can improve. I'd much rather be doing that, than questioning my top picks. I bet the guys who picked Kawhi and Chris Paul are not having a lot of fun so far.

[Asmus]

I agree about the Bledsoe / Monroe trade. However if Bledsoe starts playing defense like he used to, they might not have to surround The Freak with shooters they can just win games with a crazy defense.