I decided to use the 2015 Worlds Circle Finals for the analysis for a few reasons. First, this is some of the most amazing shred I have ever seen, especially in competition. Second, there was some controversy over the order the players finished (as there always seems to be at the World Championships), so hopefully analytics will shed some light on this. Third, I wanted to use something that was recent to make it a bit more topical for footbaggers out there. We can always go back and apply the analysis to older videos.
Before I start with the methodology and data, I would like to say there will be some critiquing of the competitors. This is in no way intended to downplay any of their achievements, all four of them are fantastic players. Me hitting any of the runs in this competition would rank better than or among the best runs I have ever hit, and I would be ecstatic. This is only to compare the players against each other, and maybe even give them insights into their own games.
Methodology
For the purposes of counting unique moves, anything with a unique combination of an uptime component (which scores ADDs of some type) with a downtime component was counted as a unique move. Moves which have no uptime component were not considered unique based on where they were set from unless the set location caused a change in the ADDs of the move, i.e. paradox moves.
For counting unique components only uptime and downtime divisions were used. For moves in which something occurred at midtime, the following rules were applied:
1. For ducking, weaving, diving, and zulu moves, the duck was applied to both the uptime component and the downtime component. I felt this was needed because showing something like stepping ducking is certainly showing a different master of a set than just ducking, and likewise with downtime components. These were further separated by the side from which the bag approached for sets or descended to for downtime components. For example, a ripped warrior counted as a stepping ducking uptime component and a ducking butterfly downtime component. A stepping zulu butterfly would count as a stepping diving uptime component, and a weaving butterfly downtime component.
2. For which largely occur starting at midtime and cannot easily be divided into uptime and downtime components, the first portion was considered uptime. For example, double around-the-world was considered a pixie uptime and a pickup downtime even though the move is not performed that way. This was to keep move that could not be classified in this way from counting as too many unique components. The same goes for triple around the world (or orbit), whirr, and ripstein. Each of these moves would count as a unique against the move using the same components which was clearly performed using a distinct uptime and downtime. E.g. pixie SS pickup and double around-the-world would be considered unique moves, but the components would not be considered unique from each other.
The analysis does rely on the ADD system to help measure difficulty. We all know the ADD system has its disadvantages, and I will not rehash them here, but it is the best estimation we all understand, so they are what I used. I did separate the “traditional” ADDs from those calculated using XDEX/XSPIN, so two different numbers will be listed. I also applied them literally, so fusion gets and XDEX ADD, although it is likely not in the spirit of the rule. Gyro miraging dexes did not get an XDEX add because the dex is no longer full.
So if you have any questions, feel free to ask. If you don’t like my system….then go make your own! This is the Adam Keith analysis
Scoring Circle
When I have judged circle it has always been scored the same way. Each round, variety and density, are scored separately, then the two scores are added together and the highest score wins. The winner of each round is given a score of 10 and the other competitors are given numbers 1 to 9 based on how well they did relative to each other. I tried to use the stats presented to place the relative scores here.
For the variety phase the most important criterion is, obviously, variety. Therefore, of the stats I will present, the most important numbers should be the number of unique moves, and the number of unique components. My belief is that the number of unique components is actually more important, because someone could do 10 unique stepping moves vs. someone doing 10 unique moves all with different sets and downtime components. To me the latter shows greater overall variety and mastery over more concepts. The number of contacts, total ADDS, and ratio are all still a factor. Overusing easier moves (especially BOPs) is a detriment.
For the density phase the most important factor is difficulty. Not just difficult moves, but difficult links as well. Also important is sustaining the difficulty. This is best reflected by the ADD-to-contact ratio. The number of contacts is also a key component, maintaining difficulty over 30 tricks is more difficult than maintaining difficulty over 10. However, variety is still important. One could simply do 40 ripwalks in a row and have a ratio of 4.00 and 40 contacts, but that is nowhere near as good as someone who matches those statistics with 20+ uniques. Once again, I would contest that unique components is more important than unique moves here, but neither tell the whole story.
I know that was long winded. So without further ado… the STATS! I’ll go in chronological order.
Variety
Milan #1
Contacts: 43
Unique Moves: 26
Unique Components: 26 (4 uptime, 22 downtime)
Total ADDs: 141/142
Ratio: 3.279/3.302
BOPs: 12 (10 butterfly, 2 osis, 0 paradox mirage), 27.91%
Jim #1
Contacts: 11
Unique Moves: 9
Unique Components: 11 (4 uptime, 7 downtime)
Total ADDs: 36/36
Ratio: 3.273/3.273
BOPs: 5 (2 butterfly, 1 osis, 2 paradox mirage), 45.45%
Vasek #1
Contacts: 47
Unique Moves: 30
Unique Components: 31 (12 uptime, 19 downtime)
Total ADDs: 154/155
Ratio: 3.277/3.298
BOPs: 14 (13 butterfly, 1 osis, 0 paradox mirage), 28.79%
Evan #1
Contacts: 80
Unique Moves: 39
Unique Components: 34 (12 uptime, 22 downtime)
Total ADDs: 268/271
Ratio: 3.350/3.388
BOPs: 19 (15 butterfly, 4 osis, 0 paradox mirage), 23.75%
HUGE run! 8 Ducking Clippers ending on the left foot.
Milan #2
Contacts: 21
Unique Moves: 15
Unique Components: 18 (5 uptime, 13 downtime)
Total ADDs: 69/69
Ratio: 3.286/3.286
BOPs: 4 (4 butterfly, 0 osis, 0 paradox mirage), 19.05%
Jim #2
Contacts: 67
Unique Moves: 36
Unique Components: 29 (6 uptime, 23 downtime)
Total ADDs: 242/242
Ratio: 3.612/3.612
BOPs: 29 (21 butterfly, 6 osis, 2 paradox mirage), 43.28%
Vasek #2
Contacts: 67
Unique Moves: 38
Unique Components: 42 (18 uptime, 24 downtime)
Total ADDs: 235/236
Ratio: 3.507/3.522
BOPs: 22 (21 butterfly, 1 osis, 0 paradox mirage), 32.84%
Evan #2
Contacts: 43
Unique Moves: 30
Unique Components: 32 (9 uptime, 23 downtime)
Total ADDs: 147/147
Ratio: 3.419/3.419
BOPs: 10 (8 butterfly, 2 osis, 0 paradox mirage), 23.26%
Milan #3
Contacts: 33
Unique Moves: 24
Unique Components: 26 (9 uptime, 17 downtime)
Total ADDs: 116/117
Ratio: 3.515/3.545
BOPs: 6 (5 butterfly, 1 osis, 0 paradox mirage), 18.18%
Jim #3
Contacts: 17
Unique Moves: 15
Unique Components: 18 (7 uptime, 11 downtime)
Total ADDs: 64/65
Ratio: 3.765/3.824
BOPs: 7 (4 butterfly, 2 osis, 1 paradox mirage), 41.18%
Vasek #3
Contacts: 22
Unique Moves: 18
Unique Components: 18 (9 uptime, 9 downtime)
Total ADDs: 80/80
Ratio: 3.636/3.636
BOPs: 7 (6 butterfly, 1 osis, 0 paradox mirage), 31.82%
Evan #3
Contacts: 22
Unique Moves: 18
Unique Components: 23 (10 uptime, 13 downtime)
Total ADDs: 80/80
Ratio: 3.636/3.636
BOPs: 4 (3 butterfly, 1 osis, 0 paradox mirage), 18.18%
Milan Variety Total – Score: 7
Contacts: 97
Unique Moves: 45
Unique Components: 40 (11 uptime, 29 downtime)
Total ADDs: 326/328
Ratio: 3.361/3.381
BOPs: 22 (19 butterfly, 3 osis, 0 paradox mirage), 22.68%
I noticed Milan’s combos all seem to reset on a left footed butterfly. Love that he uses paradox illusion instead of paradox mirage, makes his game more unique.
Jim Variety Total – Score: 6
Contacts: 95
Unique Moves: 43
Unique Components: 34 (9 uptime, 25 downtime)
Total ADDs: 342/343
Ratio: 3.600/3.611
BOPs: 41 (27 butterfly, 9 osis, 5 paradox mirage), 43.16%
Vasek Variety Total – Score: 9
Contacts: 136
Unique Moves: 62
Unique Components: 52 (23 uptime, 29 downtime)
Total ADDs: 469/471
Ratio: 3.449/3.463
BOPs: 43 (40 butterfly, 3 osis, 0 paradox mirage), 31.62%
Evan Variety Total – Score: 10
Contacts: 145
Unique Moves: 64
Unique Components: 50 (19 uptime, 31 downtime)
Total ADDs: 495/498
Ratio: 3.414/3.434
BOPs: 33 (26 butterfly, 7 osis, 0 paradox mirage), 22.76%
Density
Milan #1
Contacts: 22
Unique Moves: 18
Unique Components: 16 (6 uptime, 10 downtime)
Total ADDs: 81/83
Ratio: 3.682/3.773
BOPs: 0 (0 butterfly, 0 osis, 0 paradox mirage), 0.00%
No BOPs!
Jim #1
Contacts: 8
Unique Moves: 8
Unique Components: 10 (2 uptime, 8 downtime)
Total ADDs: 34/35
Ratio: 4.250/4.375
BOPs: 4 (2 butterfly, 1 osis, 1 paradox mirage), 50.00%
Blurry Barroque, Blurry Whirl (btb), PS Whirl
Vasek #1
Contacts: 49
Unique Moves: 29
Unique Components: 28 (9 uptime, 19 downtime)
Total ADDs: 206/209
Ratio: 4.204/4.265
BOPs: 8 (7 butterfly, 1 osis, 0 paradox mirage), 16.33%
17 moves of 5+ ADDs!
Evan #1
Contacts: 24
Unique Moves: 17
Unique Components: 20 (8 uptime, 12 downtime)
Total ADDs: 102/103
Ratio: 4.250/4.292
BOPs: 4 (3 butterfly, 1 osis, 0 paradox mirage), 16.67%
11 moves of 5+ ADDs
Milan #2
Contacts: 27
Unique Moves: 21
Unique Components: 25 (8 uptime, 17 downtime)
Total ADDs: 99/99
Ratio: 3.667/3.667
BOPs: 7 (4 butterfly, 3 osis, 0 paradox mirage), 25.93%
5 moves of 5+ ADDs
Jim #2
Contacts: 63
Unique Moves: 30
Unique Components: 27 (7 uptime, 20 downtime)
Total ADDs: 239/239
Ratio: 3.794/3.794
BOPs: 22 (18 butterfly, 3 osis, 1 paradox mirage), 43.28%
12 moves of 5+ ADDs
Vasek #2
Contacts: 29
Unique Moves: 11
Unique Components: 16 (6 uptime, 10 downtime)
Total ADDs: 108/109
Ratio: 3.724/3.759
BOPs: 7 (7 butterfly, 0 osis, 0 paradox mirage), 24.14%
3 moves of 5+ ADDs
Evan #2
Contacts: 17
Unique Moves: 8
Unique Components: 13 (5 uptime, 8 downtime)
Total ADDs: 147/147
Ratio: 4.000/4.588
BOPs: 2 (1 butterfly, 1 osis, 0 paradox mirage), 11.76%
Blurry Ducking Whirl > Gyro Whirling Swirl
Milan #3
Contacts: 27
Unique Moves: 24
Unique Components: 26 (9 uptime, 17 downtime)
Total ADDs: 98/100
Ratio: 3.630/3.704
BOPs: 3 (2 butterfly, 1 osis, 0 paradox mirage), 11.11%
5 moves of 5+ ADDs
Jim #3
Contacts: 47
Unique Moves: 30
Unique Components: 27 (7 uptime, 20 downtime)
Total ADDs: 182/182
Ratio: 3.872/3.872
BOPs: 13 (8 butterfly, 4 osis, 1 paradox mirage), 27.66%
9 moves of 5+ ADDs
Vasek #3
Contacts: 33
Unique Moves: 23
Unique Components: 24 (7 uptime, 17 downtime)
Total ADDs: 136/136
Ratio: 4.121/4.121
BOPs: 6 (6 butterfly, 0 osis, 0 paradox mirage), 18.18%
12 moves of 5+ ADDs
Evan #3
Contacts: 13
Unique Moves: 11
Unique Components: 14 (6 uptime, 8 downtime)
Total ADDs: 52/52
Ratio: 4.000/4.000
BOPs: 3 (2 butterfly, 1 osis, 0 paradox mirage), 23.08%
3 moves of 5+ ADDs
Milan Density Total – Score: 5
Contacts: 76
Unique Moves: 39
Unique Components: 36 (12 uptime, 24 downtime)
Total ADDs: 278/282
Ratio: 3.658/3.711
BOPs: 10 (6 butterfly, 4 osis, 0 paradox mirage), 13.16%
11 moves of 5+ ADDs
Jim Density Total – Score: 7
Contacts: 118
Unique Moves: 36
Unique Components: 31 (8 uptime, 23 downtime)
Total ADDs: 455/456
Ratio: 3.856/3.864
BOPs: 39 (28 butterfly, 8 osis, 3 paradox mirage), 33.05%
25 moves of 5+ ADDs
Vasek Density Total – Score: 10
Contacts: 111
Unique Moves: 52
Unique Components: 43 (15 uptime, 28 downtime)
Total ADDs: 450/454
Ratio: 4.054/4.090
BOPs: 21 (20 butterfly, 1 osis, 0 paradox mirage), 18.92%
32 moves of 5+ ADDs
Evan Variety Total – Score: 6
Contacts: 54
Unique Moves: 27
Unique Components: 28 (11 uptime, 17 downtime)
Total ADDs: 222/233
Ratio: 4.111/4.315
BOPs: 9 (6 butterfly, 3 osis, 0 paradox mirage), 16.67%
16 moves of 5+ ADDs
Final Scores:
Vasek: 19
Evan: 16
Jim: 13
Milan: 12
My final thoughts. Vasek and Evan were as even as could be in the Variety phase, but Evan’s lack of contacts in density was a huge difference in the Density phase. Milan just didn’t throw enough big tricks in the Density phase. Jim suffered from too many short runs, if he had gone lower density and hit more moves in Variety he might have scored much better. I was surprised how little fairy sets and paradox mirages were used, even atomics were a bit sparse. Vasek is still a BEAST!!!
If there are any stats you would like to see that you feel would improve the story, let me know. Please give me feedback either on here or on Facebook, I think this will be helpful to our sport.
This has been a fun but very time intensive exercise. I would like to thank the competitors, going through their shreds this thoroughly was an amazing exercise, and I feel like I know their games better and appreciate them even more than I did before.
